Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement center on Senate dynamics following the April 2026 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote, the first such defeat in over a century. Recent August 2026 meetings between Lula and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre have signaled a potential thaw, reopening discussions on resubmitting Messias or another nominee ahead of Brazil's October presidential elections. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his constitutional prerogative to choose the candidate and indicated plans to proceed, though timing remains uncertain amid coalition negotiations and the risk of another floor vote. The STF has operated with only ten ministers for over nine months, delaying some proceedings, while traders weigh pre-election positioning against possible delays until after the first round or into 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$21,477 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
11%
31 dicembre
66%
$21,477 Vol.
30 settembre
$2,263 Vol.
11%
31 dicembre
$5,465 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement center on Senate dynamics following the April 2026 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote, the first such defeat in over a century. Recent August 2026 meetings between Lula and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre have signaled a potential thaw, reopening discussions on resubmitting Messias or another nominee ahead of Brazil's October presidential elections. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his constitutional prerogative to choose the candidate and indicated plans to proceed, though timing remains uncertain amid coalition negotiations and the risk of another floor vote. The STF has operated with only ten ministers for over nine months, delaying some proceedings, while traders weigh pre-election positioning against possible delays until after the first round or into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$21,477Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement center on Senate dynamics following the April 2026 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote, the first such defeat in over a century. Recent August 2026 meetings between Lula and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre have signaled a potential thaw, reopening discussions on resubmitting Messias or another nominee ahead of Brazil's October presidential elections. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his constitutional prerogative to choose the candidate and indicated plans to proceed, though timing remains uncertain amid coalition negotiations and the risk of another floor vote. The STF has operated with only ten ministers for over nine months, delaying some proceedings, while traders weigh pre-election positioning against possible delays until after the first round or into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,477Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 retirement center on Senate dynamics following the April 2026 rejection of Attorney General Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote, the first such defeat in over a century. Recent August 2026 meetings between Lula and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre have signaled a potential thaw, reopening discussions on resubmitting Messias or another nominee ahead of Brazil's October presidential elections. Lula has publicly reaffirmed his constitutional prerogative to choose the candidate and indicated plans to proceed, though timing remains uncertain amid coalition negotiations and the risk of another floor vote. The STF has operated with only ten ministers for over nine months, delaying some proceedings, while traders weigh pre-election positioning against possible delays until after the first round or into 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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