**High procedural and political barriers continue to make removal of any STF justice before 2027 highly unlikely in traders' view.** A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited formal impeachment requests primarily to the Prosecutor General and raised the Senate threshold to a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes), a margin the opposition currently lacks. Over 100 pending requests, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master bank scandal and related allegations, have not advanced past Senate leadership review under President Davi Alcolumbre. Brazil has never removed an STF justice through this constitutional process. The October 2026 elections, which will determine the next president and renew one-third of the Senate, introduce further uncertainty, while Chief Justice Edson Fachin has moved to contain internal court disputes without triggering external removal proceedings. These structural and institutional factors underpin the strong market consensus against successful impeachment in the limited remaining timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
9% probabilità
$91,077 Vol.
$91,077 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
9% probabilità
$91,077 Vol.
$91,077 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**High procedural and political barriers continue to make removal of any STF justice before 2027 highly unlikely in traders' view.** A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited formal impeachment requests primarily to the Prosecutor General and raised the Senate threshold to a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes), a margin the opposition currently lacks. Over 100 pending requests, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master bank scandal and related allegations, have not advanced past Senate leadership review under President Davi Alcolumbre. Brazil has never removed an STF justice through this constitutional process. The October 2026 elections, which will determine the next president and renew one-third of the Senate, introduce further uncertainty, while Chief Justice Edson Fachin has moved to contain internal court disputes without triggering external removal proceedings. These structural and institutional factors underpin the strong market consensus against successful impeachment in the limited remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$91,077Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**High procedural and political barriers continue to make removal of any STF justice before 2027 highly unlikely in traders' view.** A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited formal impeachment requests primarily to the Prosecutor General and raised the Senate threshold to a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes), a margin the opposition currently lacks. Over 100 pending requests, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master bank scandal and related allegations, have not advanced past Senate leadership review under President Davi Alcolumbre. Brazil has never removed an STF justice through this constitutional process. The October 2026 elections, which will determine the next president and renew one-third of the Senate, introduce further uncertainty, while Chief Justice Edson Fachin has moved to contain internal court disputes without triggering external removal proceedings. These structural and institutional factors underpin the strong market consensus against successful impeachment in the limited remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$91,077Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**High procedural and political barriers continue to make removal of any STF justice before 2027 highly unlikely in traders' view.** A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited formal impeachment requests primarily to the Prosecutor General and raised the Senate threshold to a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes), a margin the opposition currently lacks. Over 100 pending requests, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid the Banco Master bank scandal and related allegations, have not advanced past Senate leadership review under President Davi Alcolumbre. Brazil has never removed an STF justice through this constitutional process. The October 2026 elections, which will determine the next president and renew one-third of the Senate, introduce further uncertainty, while Chief Justice Edson Fachin has moved to contain internal court disputes without triggering external removal proceedings. These structural and institutional factors underpin the strong market consensus against successful impeachment in the limited remaining timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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