Green Party leader Zack Polanski's candidacy in the 8 October by-election has elevated expectations for the party's vote share in Holborn and St Pancras, building on its 10.4% in the 2024 general election and 27.1% in the recent Camden council contests. Labour's selection of local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides a strong defensive base, while endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein's support for Polanski and potential vote splitting among other parties add uncertainty. Traders see the outcome hinging on campaign momentum, local turnout patterns, and whether Green messaging on housing and progressive issues consolidates support in this left-leaning London seat ahead of nominations closing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<20% 25%
30-35% 23%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
25%
20-25%
21%
25-30%
20%
30-35%
23%
35-40%
14%
40%+
11%
<20% 25%
30-35% 23%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
$28 Vol.
25%
20-25%
$39 Vol.
21%
25-30%
$39 Vol.
20%
30-35%
$58 Vol.
23%
35-40%
$19 Vol.
14%
40%+
$39 Vol.
11%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Green Party leader Zack Polanski's candidacy in the 8 October by-election has elevated expectations for the party's vote share in Holborn and St Pancras, building on its 10.4% in the 2024 general election and 27.1% in the recent Camden council contests. Labour's selection of local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides a strong defensive base, while endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein's support for Polanski and potential vote splitting among other parties add uncertainty. Traders see the outcome hinging on campaign momentum, local turnout patterns, and whether Green messaging on housing and progressive issues consolidates support in this left-leaning London seat ahead of nominations closing.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$222Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Green Party leader Zack Polanski's candidacy in the 8 October by-election has elevated expectations for the party's vote share in Holborn and St Pancras, building on its 10.4% in the 2024 general election and 27.1% in the recent Camden council contests. Labour's selection of local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides a strong defensive base, while endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein's support for Polanski and potential vote splitting among other parties add uncertainty. Traders see the outcome hinging on campaign momentum, local turnout patterns, and whether Green messaging on housing and progressive issues consolidates support in this left-leaning London seat ahead of nominations closing.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$222Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Green Party leader Zack Polanski's candidacy in the 8 October by-election has elevated expectations for the party's vote share in Holborn and St Pancras, building on its 10.4% in the 2024 general election and 27.1% in the recent Camden council contests. Labour's selection of local council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali provides a strong defensive base, while endorsements such as Andrew Feinstein's support for Polanski and potential vote splitting among other parties add uncertainty. Traders see the outcome hinging on campaign momentum, local turnout patterns, and whether Green messaging on housing and progressive issues consolidates support in this left-leaning London seat ahead of nominations closing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Laburista otterrà il 35-40% dei voti nelle elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
25%
Sì
Il candidato laburista vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras con un margine del 15% o più?
23%
Sì
Sagal Abdi-Wali vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
78%
Sì
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