Recent energy price volatility stemming from Middle East tensions has emerged as the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. annual inflation market, with Bank of England projections now pointing to a pickup toward 3.2% by Q4 2026 after the June CPI reading eased to 2.6%. Persistent services inflation near 3.8% and indirect effects from higher wholesale costs continue to offset progress on underlying disinflation, while the Bank Rate remains steady at 3.75%. Market-implied odds remain closely contested across the 2.5–3.9% bands because the scale of any second-round effects and the trajectory of global export prices remain uncertain ahead of further data releases and the September MPC decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 18.2%
4.0-4.4% 11%
2.0–2.4% 8.6%
$58,474 Vol.
$58,474 Vol.
19 gen 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
9%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
18%
4.0-4.4%
11%
4.5%+
8%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 18.2%
4.0-4.4% 11%
2.0–2.4% 8.6%
$58,474 Vol.
$58,474 Vol.
19 gen 2027
<1.0%
$876 Vol.
<1%
1.0–1.4%
$1,193 Vol.
4%
1.5–1.9%
$554 Vol.
2%
2.0–2.4%
$4,127 Vol.
9%
2.5–2.9%
$13,437 Vol.
23%
3.0–3.4%
$0 Vol.
-
3.5–3.9%
$24,889 Vol.
18%
4.0-4.4%
$5,516 Vol.
11%
4.5%+
$7,882 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent energy price volatility stemming from Middle East tensions has emerged as the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. annual inflation market, with Bank of England projections now pointing to a pickup toward 3.2% by Q4 2026 after the June CPI reading eased to 2.6%. Persistent services inflation near 3.8% and indirect effects from higher wholesale costs continue to offset progress on underlying disinflation, while the Bank Rate remains steady at 3.75%. Market-implied odds remain closely contested across the 2.5–3.9% bands because the scale of any second-round effects and the trajectory of global export prices remain uncertain ahead of further data releases and the September MPC decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$58,474Data di fine
20 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent energy price volatility stemming from Middle East tensions has emerged as the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. annual inflation market, with Bank of England projections now pointing to a pickup toward 3.2% by Q4 2026 after the June CPI reading eased to 2.6%. Persistent services inflation near 3.8% and indirect effects from higher wholesale costs continue to offset progress on underlying disinflation, while the Bank Rate remains steady at 3.75%. Market-implied odds remain closely contested across the 2.5–3.9% bands because the scale of any second-round effects and the trajectory of global export prices remain uncertain ahead of further data releases and the September MPC decision.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$58,474Data di fine
20 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price volatility stemming from Middle East tensions has emerged as the dominant driver behind trader positioning in the U.K. annual inflation market, with Bank of England projections now pointing to a pickup toward 3.2% by Q4 2026 after the June CPI reading eased to 2.6%. Persistent services inflation near 3.8% and indirect effects from higher wholesale costs continue to offset progress on underlying disinflation, while the Bank Rate remains steady at 3.75%. Market-implied odds remain closely contested across the 2.5–3.9% bands because the scale of any second-round effects and the trajectory of global export prices remain uncertain ahead of further data releases and the September MPC decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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