**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the October FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50–3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and a cooling labor market.** July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, supported by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while unemployment held near 4.1% with softening payroll gains. The July FOMC decision passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the committee inclined to pause pending clearer data. Recent producer price and employment figures reinforce this wait-and-see stance, as traders price limited scope for a cut or aggressive hike before the October 27–28 meeting. August CPI and jobs reports, due before the September FOMC, remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed in ottobre?
Decisione della Fed in ottobre?
Nessun cambiamento 72%
Aumento di 25 punti base 24%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 4.9%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.4%
$666,936 Vol.
$666,936 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
5%
Nessun cambiamento
72%
Aumento di 25 punti base
24%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessun cambiamento 72%
Aumento di 25 punti base 24%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 4.9%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.4%
$666,936 Vol.
$666,936 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$126,880 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$206,514 Vol.
5%
Nessun cambiamento
$140,105 Vol.
72%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$135,751 Vol.
24%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$57,685 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the October FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50–3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and a cooling labor market.** July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, supported by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while unemployment held near 4.1% with softening payroll gains. The July FOMC decision passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the committee inclined to pause pending clearer data. Recent producer price and employment figures reinforce this wait-and-see stance, as traders price limited scope for a cut or aggressive hike before the October 27–28 meeting. August CPI and jobs reports, due before the September FOMC, remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$666,936Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the October FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50–3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and a cooling labor market.** July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, supported by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while unemployment held near 4.1% with softening payroll gains. The July FOMC decision passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the committee inclined to pause pending clearer data. Recent producer price and employment figures reinforce this wait-and-see stance, as traders price limited scope for a cut or aggressive hike before the October 27–28 meeting. August CPI and jobs reports, due before the September FOMC, remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$666,936Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the October FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50–3.75% target range amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal and a cooling labor market.** July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, supported by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, while unemployment held near 4.1% with softening payroll gains. The July FOMC decision passed 9-3 with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the committee inclined to pause pending clearer data. Recent producer price and employment figures reinforce this wait-and-see stance, as traders price limited scope for a cut or aggressive hike before the October 27–28 meeting. August CPI and jobs reports, due before the September FOMC, remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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