Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core measures at 2.4%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% faces limited pressure for adjustment, as labor market resilience and firmer growth forecasts reduce the case for easing while elevated price pressures limit scope for aggressive tightening. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no-change outcomes leading amid tempered expectations for near-term shifts. Upcoming September CPI and labor reports, alongside the Fed’s September projections, represent key near-term inputs that could influence positioning ahead of the January decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 57%
Aumento di 25 punti base 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$77,421 Vol.
$77,421 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
57%
Aumento di 25 punti base
24%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
2%
No change 57%
Aumento di 25 punti base 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$77,421 Vol.
$77,421 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
$14,016 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$18,975 Vol.
7%
No change
$21,495 Vol.
57%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$17,509 Vol.
24%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$5,426 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core measures at 2.4%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% faces limited pressure for adjustment, as labor market resilience and firmer growth forecasts reduce the case for easing while elevated price pressures limit scope for aggressive tightening. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no-change outcomes leading amid tempered expectations for near-term shifts. Upcoming September CPI and labor reports, alongside the Fed’s September projections, represent key near-term inputs that could influence positioning ahead of the January decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$77,421Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core measures at 2.4%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% faces limited pressure for adjustment, as labor market resilience and firmer growth forecasts reduce the case for easing while elevated price pressures limit scope for aggressive tightening. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no-change outcomes leading amid tempered expectations for near-term shifts. Upcoming September CPI and labor reports, alongside the Fed’s September projections, represent key near-term inputs that could influence positioning ahead of the January decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$77,421Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core measures at 2.4%, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% faces limited pressure for adjustment, as labor market resilience and firmer growth forecasts reduce the case for easing while elevated price pressures limit scope for aggressive tightening. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no-change outcomes leading amid tempered expectations for near-term shifts. Upcoming September CPI and labor reports, alongside the Fed’s September projections, represent key near-term inputs that could influence positioning ahead of the January decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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