Recent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year, elevated relative to the 2% target and influenced by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. That decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the policy stance on hold for now. With the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings ahead, market-implied probabilities heavily favor no changes across the three decisions, as traders weigh resilient growth and labor-market data against sticky price pressures and the absence of fresh economic projections. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this cautious consensus while acknowledging that hotter CPI prints or further geopolitical shocks could reopen the door to earlier tightening.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,083 Vol.
$712,083 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
40%
Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,083 Vol.
$712,083 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$236,075 Vol.
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
Other
$310,878 Vol.
40%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year, elevated relative to the 2% target and influenced by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. That decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the policy stance on hold for now. With the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings ahead, market-implied probabilities heavily favor no changes across the three decisions, as traders weigh resilient growth and labor-market data against sticky price pressures and the absence of fresh economic projections. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this cautious consensus while acknowledging that hotter CPI prints or further geopolitical shocks could reopen the door to earlier tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$712,083Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year, elevated relative to the 2% target and influenced by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. That decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the policy stance on hold for now. With the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings ahead, market-implied probabilities heavily favor no changes across the three decisions, as traders weigh resilient growth and labor-market data against sticky price pressures and the absence of fresh economic projections. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this cautious consensus while acknowledging that hotter CPI prints or further geopolitical shocks could reopen the door to earlier tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$712,083Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 3.4% year-over-year, elevated relative to the 2% target and influenced by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. That decision passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscoring internal divisions but leaving the policy stance on hold for now. With the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings ahead, market-implied probabilities heavily favor no changes across the three decisions, as traders weigh resilient growth and labor-market data against sticky price pressures and the absence of fresh economic projections. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this cautious consensus while acknowledging that hotter CPI prints or further geopolitical shocks could reopen the door to earlier tightening.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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