Recent Bank of Japan communications and July 31, 2026, decision to hold the policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995—have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 meeting. Persistent underlying inflation near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and wage pressures continue to support gradual normalization, while yen volatility and government interventions introduce caution. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each commanding roughly even probabilities amid balanced risks cited by the board. Upcoming September data releases and any shifts in growth or price forecasts will likely refine positioning ahead of the October resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 54%
25 bps increase 44%
50+ bps decrease 2.8%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ott 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
54%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 54%
25 bps increase 44%
50+ bps decrease 2.8%
50+ bps increase 2.6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ott 2026
50+ bps decrease
$303 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$303 Vol.
2%
No change
$1,658 Vol.
54%
25 bps increase
$3,370 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$303 Vol.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and July 31, 2026, decision to hold the policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995—have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 meeting. Persistent underlying inflation near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and wage pressures continue to support gradual normalization, while yen volatility and government interventions introduce caution. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each commanding roughly even probabilities amid balanced risks cited by the board. Upcoming September data releases and any shifts in growth or price forecasts will likely refine positioning ahead of the October resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$5,937Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and July 31, 2026, decision to hold the policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995—have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 meeting. Persistent underlying inflation near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and wage pressures continue to support gradual normalization, while yen volatility and government interventions introduce caution. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each commanding roughly even probabilities amid balanced risks cited by the board. Upcoming September data releases and any shifts in growth or price forecasts will likely refine positioning ahead of the October resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,937Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan communications and July 31, 2026, decision to hold the policy rate at 1.00%—its highest level since 1995—have anchored trader expectations for the October 29-30 meeting. Persistent underlying inflation near or above the 2% target, resilient domestic demand, and wage pressures continue to support gradual normalization, while yen volatility and government interventions introduce caution. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each commanding roughly even probabilities amid balanced risks cited by the board. Upcoming September data releases and any shifts in growth or price forecasts will likely refine positioning ahead of the October resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
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