Elon Musk's weekly tweet volume on X reflects his real-time engagement with breaking news, Tesla and SpaceX developments, and political commentary, creating a tight distribution among the 160-219 ranges that together command roughly half the market-implied probability. Traders weigh his historical patterns—often 20-40 posts daily during active periods—against the absence of major scheduled catalysts like earnings reports or launches in the September 8-15 window, which keeps outcomes clustered rather than skewed. Variability from sudden events, platform algorithm shifts, or personal posting bursts introduces the spread seen in lower-probability tails, underscoring how sentiment aggregates around expected baseline activity while acknowledging rapid changes typical in celebrity-driven social media cycles.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato180-199 19%
160-179 18%
200-219 15%
140-159 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 set 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
4%
140-159
13%
160-179
18%
180-199
19%
200-219
15%
220-239
13%
240-259
9%
260-279
5%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
2%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 19%
160-179 18%
200-219 15%
140-159 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 set 2026
<20
$269 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$219 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$309 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$705 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$173 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$116 Vol.
1%
120-139
$107 Vol.
4%
140-159
$311 Vol.
13%
160-179
$59 Vol.
18%
180-199
$228 Vol.
19%
200-219
$53 Vol.
15%
220-239
$64 Vol.
13%
240-259
$93 Vol.
9%
260-279
$53 Vol.
5%
280-299
$53 Vol.
3%
300-319
$113 Vol.
2%
320-339
$53 Vol.
2%
340-359
$203 Vol.
1%
360-379
$215 Vol.
1%
380-399
$215 Vol.
1%
400-419
$53 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$53 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$53 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$54 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$54 Vol.
<1%
500+
$73 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's weekly tweet volume on X reflects his real-time engagement with breaking news, Tesla and SpaceX developments, and political commentary, creating a tight distribution among the 160-219 ranges that together command roughly half the market-implied probability. Traders weigh his historical patterns—often 20-40 posts daily during active periods—against the absence of major scheduled catalysts like earnings reports or launches in the September 8-15 window, which keeps outcomes clustered rather than skewed. Variability from sudden events, platform algorithm shifts, or personal posting bursts introduces the spread seen in lower-probability tails, underscoring how sentiment aggregates around expected baseline activity while acknowledging rapid changes typical in celebrity-driven social media cycles.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$3,951Data di fine
15 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's weekly tweet volume on X reflects his real-time engagement with breaking news, Tesla and SpaceX developments, and political commentary, creating a tight distribution among the 160-219 ranges that together command roughly half the market-implied probability. Traders weigh his historical patterns—often 20-40 posts daily during active periods—against the absence of major scheduled catalysts like earnings reports or launches in the September 8-15 window, which keeps outcomes clustered rather than skewed. Variability from sudden events, platform algorithm shifts, or personal posting bursts introduces the spread seen in lower-probability tails, underscoring how sentiment aggregates around expected baseline activity while acknowledging rapid changes typical in celebrity-driven social media cycles.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,951Data di fine
15 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's weekly tweet volume on X reflects his real-time engagement with breaking news, Tesla and SpaceX developments, and political commentary, creating a tight distribution among the 160-219 ranges that together command roughly half the market-implied probability. Traders weigh his historical patterns—often 20-40 posts daily during active periods—against the absence of major scheduled catalysts like earnings reports or launches in the September 8-15 window, which keeps outcomes clustered rather than skewed. Variability from sudden events, platform algorithm shifts, or personal posting bursts introduces the spread seen in lower-probability tails, underscoring how sentiment aggregates around expected baseline activity while acknowledging rapid changes typical in celebrity-driven social media cycles.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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