Khamenei’s official X accounts have historically maintained low weekly output, typically a handful of posts absent major triggers, aligning with trader consensus favoring under five during the September 18–25 window. This reflects steady patterns across Persian, English, and other language channels managed by the office of the Supreme Leader, where activity spikes only around crises, speeches, or regional developments. Recent tracking shows averages near three posts daily in quieter periods, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward minimal volume. A sudden escalation in Iran-related conflicts, high-profile diplomatic statements, or domestic announcements could increase activity and shift probabilities, though such events remain outside the immediate forecast horizon.