**Recent releases and incremental gains among frontier large language models are shaping trader views on whether any system will post a new high Overall Arena Score by September 30.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus-5 variants lead the main Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1505–1508 Elo, with OpenAI’s freshly launched GPT-6 Astra quickly topping specialized Code Arena categories at 1797 while other labs (Google Gemini 3.7, Meta Muse Spark, Qwen, Kimi) cluster in the 1480–1498 range. The pace of progress—roughly 10 points per month on average—combined with ongoing model updates, higher-vote accumulation, and competitive pressure from multiple providers makes further incremental lifts likely before month-end, though the tight clustering of top scores and typical release timelines introduce uncertainty about whether a decisive new overall peak will be confirmed in the remaining weeks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$187,717 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
1520
95%
1530
5%
1540
7%
1550
2%
$187,717 Vol.
1520
$62,120 Vol.
95%
1530
$22,010 Vol.
5%
1540
$10,967 Vol.
7%
1550
$11,877 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent releases and incremental gains among frontier large language models are shaping trader views on whether any system will post a new high Overall Arena Score by September 30.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus-5 variants lead the main Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1505–1508 Elo, with OpenAI’s freshly launched GPT-6 Astra quickly topping specialized Code Arena categories at 1797 while other labs (Google Gemini 3.7, Meta Muse Spark, Qwen, Kimi) cluster in the 1480–1498 range. The pace of progress—roughly 10 points per month on average—combined with ongoing model updates, higher-vote accumulation, and competitive pressure from multiple providers makes further incremental lifts likely before month-end, though the tight clustering of top scores and typical release timelines introduce uncertainty about whether a decisive new overall peak will be confirmed in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$187,717Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent releases and incremental gains among frontier large language models are shaping trader views on whether any system will post a new high Overall Arena Score by September 30.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus-5 variants lead the main Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1505–1508 Elo, with OpenAI’s freshly launched GPT-6 Astra quickly topping specialized Code Arena categories at 1797 while other labs (Google Gemini 3.7, Meta Muse Spark, Qwen, Kimi) cluster in the 1480–1498 range. The pace of progress—roughly 10 points per month on average—combined with ongoing model updates, higher-vote accumulation, and competitive pressure from multiple providers makes further incremental lifts likely before month-end, though the tight clustering of top scores and typical release timelines introduce uncertainty about whether a decisive new overall peak will be confirmed in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$187,717Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent releases and incremental gains among frontier large language models are shaping trader views on whether any system will post a new high Overall Arena Score by September 30.** As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus-5 variants lead the main Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1505–1508 Elo, with OpenAI’s freshly launched GPT-6 Astra quickly topping specialized Code Arena categories at 1797 while other labs (Google Gemini 3.7, Meta Muse Spark, Qwen, Kimi) cluster in the 1480–1498 range. The pace of progress—roughly 10 points per month on average—combined with ongoing model updates, higher-vote accumulation, and competitive pressure from multiple providers makes further incremental lifts likely before month-end, though the tight clustering of top scores and typical release timelines introduce uncertainty about whether a decisive new overall peak will be confirmed in the remaining weeks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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