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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Teknologi·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Teknologi·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

$187,717 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$187,717 Vol.

Polymarket

1520

$62,120 Vol.

95%

1530

$22,010 Vol.

5%

1540

$10,967 Vol.

7%

1550

$11,877 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Anthropic Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, currently lead the Arena.ai overall leaderboard near 1505-1508 Elo, reflecting incremental gains from post-training refinements and strong human preference signals in writing, reasoning, and multi-turn tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 boosted specialized code and agent arenas but has not yet displaced the frontier in the main text overall metric, while Google Gemini 3.7/3.8 Flash updates and Alibaba Qwen3.8-Max iterations added competitive pressure in targeted categories. With only weeks remaining until September 30, trader focus centers on whether any lab can deliver a timely high-impact release or fine-tune that pushes the top score across the resolution threshold amid tight confidence intervals and rapid AutoEval integration on Arena.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$187,717
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Anthropic Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, currently lead the Arena.ai overall leaderboard near 1505-1508 Elo, reflecting incremental gains from post-training refinements and strong human preference signals in writing, reasoning, and multi-turn tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 boosted specialized code and agent arenas but has not yet displaced the frontier in the main text overall metric, while Google Gemini 3.7/3.8 Flash updates and Alibaba Qwen3.8-Max iterations added competitive pressure in targeted categories. With only weeks remaining until September 30, trader focus centers on whether any lab can deliver a timely high-impact release or fine-tune that pushes the top score across the resolution threshold amid tight confidence intervals and rapid AutoEval integration on Arena.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$187,717
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

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Bitcoin Up or Down

50%
Up
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Dogecoin Up or Down

50%
Up
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BNB Up or Down

September 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

50%
Up

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "1510" di 100%, diikuti oleh "1520" di 95%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" telah menghasilkan $187.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 2, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" adalah "1510" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1520" di 95%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.