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Dunia·Science

New pandemic in 2026?

icon for New pandemic in 2026?
Dunia·Science

New pandemic in 2026?

Dec 31

Jan 1, 2028

Dec 31

Jan 1, 2028

6% peluang
Polymarket

$1,018,462 Vol.

6% peluang
Polymarket

$1,018,462 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Strong trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of no new pandemic in 2026 stems from mid-August surveillance data showing no novel pathogen with sustained global human-to-human transmission. Regional outbreaks, including the WHO-declared PHEIC for Bundibugyo Ebola in the DRC and Uganda, plus localized surges in measles, dengue, and mpox clade I, have remained geographically contained without exponential international spread. Post-COVID gains in genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have reduced escalation risks from potential zoonotic spillovers. Realistic challenges include undetected viral evolution in animal reservoirs or rapid airborne adaptation enabling wider transmission before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$1,018,462
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Strong trader consensus around a 94.5% probability of no new pandemic in 2026 stems from mid-August surveillance data showing no novel pathogen with sustained global human-to-human transmission. Regional outbreaks, including the WHO-declared PHEIC for Bundibugyo Ebola in the DRC and Uganda, plus localized surges in measles, dengue, and mpox clade I, have remained geographically contained without exponential international spread. Post-COVID gains in genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have reduced escalation risks from potential zoonotic spillovers. Realistic challenges include undetected viral evolution in animal reservoirs or rapid airborne adaptation enabling wider transmission before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$1,018,462
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"New pandemic in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 6% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 6¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 6% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "New pandemic in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $1 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 1, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "New pandemic in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "New pandemic in 2026?" adalah 6% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 6% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "New pandemic in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.