A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 per CPC and IRI observations, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.25–1.29°C and higher bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, pushing probabilities for above-normal temperatures across most of the globe during JJA 2026 according to WMO multi-model ensembles. Model consensus points to further strengthening through boreal summer, though exact August magnitude hinges on atmospheric coupling strength, potential aerosol influences, and short-term variability that can shift outcomes within the narrow 0.05°C resolution bands. Updated seasonal forecasts and early August observational data from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key signals for traders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 40%
1.25–1.29ºC 36%
1.20–1.24ºC 21%
1.15–1.19ºC 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
6%
1.15–1.19ºC
10%
1.20–1.24ºC
21%
1.25–1.29ºC
36%
>1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC 40%
1.25–1.29ºC 36%
1.20–1.24ºC 21%
1.15–1.19ºC 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$323 Vol.
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
$374 Vol.
6%
1.15–1.19ºC
$313 Vol.
10%
1.20–1.24ºC
$62 Vol.
21%
1.25–1.29ºC
$181 Vol.
36%
>1.29ºC
$205 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 per CPC and IRI observations, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.25–1.29°C and higher bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, pushing probabilities for above-normal temperatures across most of the globe during JJA 2026 according to WMO multi-model ensembles. Model consensus points to further strengthening through boreal summer, though exact August magnitude hinges on atmospheric coupling strength, potential aerosol influences, and short-term variability that can shift outcomes within the narrow 0.05°C resolution bands. Updated seasonal forecasts and early August observational data from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key signals for traders.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,458Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 per CPC and IRI observations, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.25–1.29°C and higher bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, pushing probabilities for above-normal temperatures across most of the globe during JJA 2026 according to WMO multi-model ensembles. Model consensus points to further strengthening through boreal summer, though exact August magnitude hinges on atmospheric coupling strength, potential aerosol influences, and short-term variability that can shift outcomes within the narrow 0.05°C resolution bands. Updated seasonal forecasts and early August observational data from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key signals for traders.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,458Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 per CPC and IRI observations, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.25–1.29°C and higher bins. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, pushing probabilities for above-normal temperatures across most of the globe during JJA 2026 according to WMO multi-model ensembles. Model consensus points to further strengthening through boreal summer, though exact August magnitude hinges on atmospheric coupling strength, potential aerosol influences, and short-term variability that can shift outcomes within the narrow 0.05°C resolution bands. Updated seasonal forecasts and early August observational data from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key signals for traders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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