The Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal forecast for August-October emphasizes a higher likelihood of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, driven by current ENSO conditions and climate model consensus. This outlook aligns with traders favoring bins above 650 mm as leading outcomes, reflecting the peak monsoon and typhoon season when convective activity and tropical systems often deliver heavy showers. Early August already shows frequent thunderstorms and high rain probabilities per local nowcasts, while historical August averages range 377-509 mm with substantial year-to-year variability from steering patterns and storm tracks. Upcoming model updates and any typhoon formations in the South China Sea could shift these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 65%
650-700mm 29%
<425mm 24%
425-450mm 22%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
24%
425-450mm
22%
450-475mm
18%
475-500mm
21%
500-525mm
19%
525-550mm
17%
550-600mm
16%
600-650mm
18%
650-700mm
29%
700mm+
52%
700mm+ 65%
650-700mm 29%
<425mm 24%
425-450mm 22%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$87 Vol.
24%
425-450mm
$66 Vol.
22%
450-475mm
$83 Vol.
18%
475-500mm
$66 Vol.
21%
500-525mm
$69 Vol.
19%
525-550mm
$98 Vol.
17%
550-600mm
$80 Vol.
16%
600-650mm
$66 Vol.
18%
650-700mm
$40 Vol.
29%
700mm+
$153 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal forecast for August-October emphasizes a higher likelihood of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, driven by current ENSO conditions and climate model consensus. This outlook aligns with traders favoring bins above 650 mm as leading outcomes, reflecting the peak monsoon and typhoon season when convective activity and tropical systems often deliver heavy showers. Early August already shows frequent thunderstorms and high rain probabilities per local nowcasts, while historical August averages range 377-509 mm with substantial year-to-year variability from steering patterns and storm tracks. Upcoming model updates and any typhoon formations in the South China Sea could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$809Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal forecast for August-October emphasizes a higher likelihood of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, driven by current ENSO conditions and climate model consensus. This outlook aligns with traders favoring bins above 650 mm as leading outcomes, reflecting the peak monsoon and typhoon season when convective activity and tropical systems often deliver heavy showers. Early August already shows frequent thunderstorms and high rain probabilities per local nowcasts, while historical August averages range 377-509 mm with substantial year-to-year variability from steering patterns and storm tracks. Upcoming model updates and any typhoon formations in the South China Sea could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$809Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory's late-July seasonal forecast for August-October emphasizes a higher likelihood of near-normal rainfall alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, driven by current ENSO conditions and climate model consensus. This outlook aligns with traders favoring bins above 650 mm as leading outcomes, reflecting the peak monsoon and typhoon season when convective activity and tropical systems often deliver heavy showers. Early August already shows frequent thunderstorms and high rain probabilities per local nowcasts, while historical August averages range 377-509 mm with substantial year-to-year variability from steering patterns and storm tracks. Upcoming model updates and any typhoon formations in the South China Sea could shift these market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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