Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% peluang
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
21% peluang
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,641Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,641Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stringent resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—drive the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring show these events occur infrequently, with none registered in the first seven-plus months of 2026. Current atmospheric steering patterns, seismic quiescence along major faults, and volcano observatory data reveal no precursors indicating imminent qualification. Ongoing satellite surveillance and model ensembles reinforce baseline rarity through year-end, sustaining trader consensus around low odds despite routine smaller-scale activity.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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