Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2 °C and forecasts for further intensification, introduce notable uncertainty into East Asian monsoon dynamics and typhoon tracks affecting Seoul. Historical August totals average near 350 mm, yet 2026 outlooks from the Korea Meteorological Administration point to near- or below-average rainfall overall, tempered by heightened atmospheric instability that favors localized convective downpours. Traders weigh the potential for monsoon retreat timing and 2–3 typhoon influences against climatological baselines, producing closely matched market-implied odds across low and extreme bins; model consensus on steering patterns and precipitation variability will likely shift as August forecast updates emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPrecipitation in Seoul in August?
Precipitation in Seoul in August?
<150mm 43%
500mm+ 42%
150-200mm 34%
200-250mm 34%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
<150mm
43%
150-200mm
34%
200-250mm
34%
250-300mm
34%
300-350mm
34%
350-400mm
34%
400-500mm
34%
500mm+
42%
<150mm 43%
500mm+ 42%
150-200mm 34%
200-250mm 34%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
<150mm
$0 Vol.
43%
150-200mm
$0 Vol.
34%
200-250mm
$0 Vol.
34%
250-300mm
$0 Vol.
34%
300-350mm
$0 Vol.
34%
350-400mm
$0 Vol.
34%
400-500mm
$0 Vol.
34%
500mm+
$26 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2 °C and forecasts for further intensification, introduce notable uncertainty into East Asian monsoon dynamics and typhoon tracks affecting Seoul. Historical August totals average near 350 mm, yet 2026 outlooks from the Korea Meteorological Administration point to near- or below-average rainfall overall, tempered by heightened atmospheric instability that favors localized convective downpours. Traders weigh the potential for monsoon retreat timing and 2–3 typhoon influences against climatological baselines, producing closely matched market-implied odds across low and extreme bins; model consensus on steering patterns and precipitation variability will likely shift as August forecast updates emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ET
Volume
$26Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2 °C and forecasts for further intensification, introduce notable uncertainty into East Asian monsoon dynamics and typhoon tracks affecting Seoul. Historical August totals average near 350 mm, yet 2026 outlooks from the Korea Meteorological Administration point to near- or below-average rainfall overall, tempered by heightened atmospheric instability that favors localized convective downpours. Traders weigh the potential for monsoon retreat timing and 2–3 typhoon influences against climatological baselines, producing closely matched market-implied odds across low and extreme bins; model consensus on steering patterns and precipitation variability will likely shift as August forecast updates emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2 °C and forecasts for further intensification, introduce notable uncertainty into East Asian monsoon dynamics and typhoon tracks affecting Seoul. Historical August totals average near 350 mm, yet 2026 outlooks from the Korea Meteorological Administration point to near- or below-average rainfall overall, tempered by heightened atmospheric instability that favors localized convective downpours. Traders weigh the potential for monsoon retreat timing and 2–3 typhoon influences against climatological baselines, producing closely matched market-implied odds across low and extreme bins; model consensus on steering patterns and precipitation variability will likely shift as August forecast updates emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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