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Dunia·Pandemi

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

icon for New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
Dunia·Pandemi

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

9% peluang
Polymarket

$245,141 Vol.

9% peluang
Polymarket

$245,141 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Traders assign a strong 91% probability to no new COVID variant of concern before 2027 because current SARS-CoV-2 evolution shows limited public health impact despite ongoing mutations. Established immunity from prior infections, vaccinations, and updated 2026-2027 formulas targeting lineages like XFG and JN.1 descendants continues to limit severity. Health agencies such as WHO and ECDC report no variants meeting VOC criteria as of mid-2026, with strains like BA.3.2 (Cicada) and NB.1.8.1 classified only as variants under monitoring or interest due to low additional risk of hospitalization or mortality. Genomic surveillance confirms stable circulation patterns without the transmissibility or immune-escape jumps needed to trigger reclassification, supporting the market's consensus on the near-term outlook.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volume
$245,141
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Traders assign a strong 91% probability to no new COVID variant of concern before 2027 because current SARS-CoV-2 evolution shows limited public health impact despite ongoing mutations. Established immunity from prior infections, vaccinations, and updated 2026-2027 formulas targeting lineages like XFG and JN.1 descendants continues to limit severity. Health agencies such as WHO and ECDC report no variants meeting VOC criteria as of mid-2026, with strains like BA.3.2 (Cicada) and NB.1.8.1 classified only as variants under monitoring or interest due to low additional risk of hospitalization or mortality. Genomic surveillance confirms stable circulation patterns without the transmissibility or immune-escape jumps needed to trigger reclassification, supporting the market's consensus on the near-term outlook.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volume
$245,141
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 9% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 9¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 9% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $245.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 1, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" adalah 9% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 9% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.