**Persistent rain and cloudy conditions from an approaching weather system are anchoring Tokyo's minimum temperature forecast for September 21, 2026, near 21–23°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs referenced in current outlooks, show overnight lows in this range under overcast skies and widespread precipitation, with some guidance indicating 20–22°C and others 22–23°C. Heavy rainfall (forecast totals exceeding 50–100 mm in places) and elevated humidity suppress radiative cooling, limiting the potential for lower readings, while the lack of clear skies or strong cold advection prevents extremes. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble consensus align with this band, consistent with late-September climatology modified by the active pattern. Traders have concentrated probability on 21°C (26%), 22°C (37.5%), and 23°C (23%) because recent model updates show minimal spread outside this narrow window, with only modest downside risk below 20°C if cooling strengthens unexpectedly. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and JMA updates will be the next key inputs likely to refine these implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
22°C 48%
21°C 26%
24°C 19%
23°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
6%
20°C
16%
21°C
26%
22°C
38%
23°C
19%
24°C
19%
25°C
10%
26°C
7%
27°C or higher
5%
22°C 48%
21°C 26%
24°C 19%
23°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$100 Vol.
2%
19°C
$41 Vol.
6%
20°C
$0 Vol.
16%
21°C
$95 Vol.
26%
22°C
$13 Vol.
38%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent rain and cloudy conditions from an approaching weather system are anchoring Tokyo's minimum temperature forecast for September 21, 2026, near 21–23°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs referenced in current outlooks, show overnight lows in this range under overcast skies and widespread precipitation, with some guidance indicating 20–22°C and others 22–23°C.
Heavy rainfall (forecast totals exceeding 50–100 mm in places) and elevated humidity suppress radiative cooling, limiting the potential for lower readings, while the lack of clear skies or strong cold advection prevents extremes. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble consensus align with this band, consistent with late-September climatology modified by the active pattern. Traders have concentrated probability on 21°C (26%), 22°C (37.5%), and 23°C (23%) because recent model updates show minimal spread outside this narrow window, with only modest downside risk below 20°C if cooling strengthens unexpectedly. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and JMA updates will be the next key inputs likely to refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$249Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent rain and cloudy conditions from an approaching weather system are anchoring Tokyo's minimum temperature forecast for September 21, 2026, near 21–23°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs referenced in current outlooks, show overnight lows in this range under overcast skies and widespread precipitation, with some guidance indicating 20–22°C and others 22–23°C.
Heavy rainfall (forecast totals exceeding 50–100 mm in places) and elevated humidity suppress radiative cooling, limiting the potential for lower readings, while the lack of clear skies or strong cold advection prevents extremes. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble consensus align with this band, consistent with late-September climatology modified by the active pattern. Traders have concentrated probability on 21°C (26%), 22°C (37.5%), and 23°C (23%) because recent model updates show minimal spread outside this narrow window, with only modest downside risk below 20°C if cooling strengthens unexpectedly. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and JMA updates will be the next key inputs likely to refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$249Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent rain and cloudy conditions from an approaching weather system are anchoring Tokyo's minimum temperature forecast for September 21, 2026, near 21–23°C.** Multiple numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs referenced in current outlooks, show overnight lows in this range under overcast skies and widespread precipitation, with some guidance indicating 20–22°C and others 22–23°C. Heavy rainfall (forecast totals exceeding 50–100 mm in places) and elevated humidity suppress radiative cooling, limiting the potential for lower readings, while the lack of clear skies or strong cold advection prevents extremes. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble consensus align with this band, consistent with late-September climatology modified by the active pattern. Traders have concentrated probability on 21°C (26%), 22°C (37.5%), and 23°C (23%) because recent model updates show minimal spread outside this narrow window, with only modest downside risk below 20°C if cooling strengthens unexpectedly. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and JMA updates will be the next key inputs likely to refine these implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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