Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models reveal substantial uncertainty in minimum temperatures for Istanbul on September 21, with some runs showing northerly cool air advection potentially dropping lows to 15°C or below while others indicate persistent warmer southerly flow supporting 25°C or higher. This spread, typical for transitional autumn patterns influenced by Mediterranean sea surface temperatures and regional pressure gradients, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds near 50% for the extreme ranges. Historical September baselines average 16–18°C minima, but current model divergence and the short lead time to resolution keep specific temperature bins evenly distributed around 20%. Updated runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF are expected within 24 hours and could shift trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 21?
15°C or below 100%
25°C or higher 98%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
15°C or below
100%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
40%
19°C
40%
20°C
40%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
40%
25°C or higher
98%
15°C or below 100%
25°C or higher 98%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models reveal substantial uncertainty in minimum temperatures for Istanbul on September 21, with some runs showing northerly cool air advection potentially dropping lows to 15°C or below while others indicate persistent warmer southerly flow supporting 25°C or higher. This spread, typical for transitional autumn patterns influenced by Mediterranean sea surface temperatures and regional pressure gradients, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds near 50% for the extreme ranges. Historical September baselines average 16–18°C minima, but current model divergence and the short lead time to resolution keep specific temperature bins evenly distributed around 20%. Updated runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF are expected within 24 hours and could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models reveal substantial uncertainty in minimum temperatures for Istanbul on September 21, with some runs showing northerly cool air advection potentially dropping lows to 15°C or below while others indicate persistent warmer southerly flow supporting 25°C or higher. This spread, typical for transitional autumn patterns influenced by Mediterranean sea surface temperatures and regional pressure gradients, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds near 50% for the extreme ranges. Historical September baselines average 16–18°C minima, but current model divergence and the short lead time to resolution keep specific temperature bins evenly distributed around 20%. Updated runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF are expected within 24 hours and could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models reveal substantial uncertainty in minimum temperatures for Istanbul on September 21, with some runs showing northerly cool air advection potentially dropping lows to 15°C or below while others indicate persistent warmer southerly flow supporting 25°C or higher. This spread, typical for transitional autumn patterns influenced by Mediterranean sea surface temperatures and regional pressure gradients, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds near 50% for the extreme ranges. Historical September baselines average 16–18°C minima, but current model divergence and the short lead time to resolution keep specific temperature bins evenly distributed around 20%. Updated runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF are expected within 24 hours and could shift trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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