Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 4 project a mostly sunny day with a daytime high near 85°F, aligning closely with the market's leading 84-85°F outcome at 58% implied probability. This range reflects typical mid-summer radiative heating under partly to mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and dew points in the mid-60s that limit excessive evaporative cooling. Model consensus from NWS and private sources shows minimal spread, with limited cloud cover or precipitation expected before peak afternoon temperatures. The secondary 86-87°F bin at 24.5% accounts for slight upside if insolation exceeds guidance, while lower probabilities for 82-83°F or above 88°F reflect the narrow uncertainty band in current short-range guidance. No significant forecast revisions have emerged in the past 24 hours to shift this positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on August 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 4?
84-85°F 59%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 13%
88-89°F 3%
$19,641 Vol.
$19,641 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
59%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 59%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 13%
88-89°F 3%
$19,641 Vol.
$19,641 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
$638 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$539 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$2,339 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,602 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$3,327 Vol.
13%
84-85°F
$3,761 Vol.
59%
86-87°F
$2,182 Vol.
26%
88-89°F
$2,306 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$1,695 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$611 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$643 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 4 project a mostly sunny day with a daytime high near 85°F, aligning closely with the market's leading 84-85°F outcome at 58% implied probability. This range reflects typical mid-summer radiative heating under partly to mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and dew points in the mid-60s that limit excessive evaporative cooling. Model consensus from NWS and private sources shows minimal spread, with limited cloud cover or precipitation expected before peak afternoon temperatures. The secondary 86-87°F bin at 24.5% accounts for slight upside if insolation exceeds guidance, while lower probabilities for 82-83°F or above 88°F reflect the narrow uncertainty band in current short-range guidance. No significant forecast revisions have emerged in the past 24 hours to shift this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$19,641Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 4 project a mostly sunny day with a daytime high near 85°F, aligning closely with the market's leading 84-85°F outcome at 58% implied probability. This range reflects typical mid-summer radiative heating under partly to mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and dew points in the mid-60s that limit excessive evaporative cooling. Model consensus from NWS and private sources shows minimal spread, with limited cloud cover or precipitation expected before peak afternoon temperatures. The secondary 86-87°F bin at 24.5% accounts for slight upside if insolation exceeds guidance, while lower probabilities for 82-83°F or above 88°F reflect the narrow uncertainty band in current short-range guidance. No significant forecast revisions have emerged in the past 24 hours to shift this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,641Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 4 project a mostly sunny day with a daytime high near 85°F, aligning closely with the market's leading 84-85°F outcome at 58% implied probability. This range reflects typical mid-summer radiative heating under partly to mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and dew points in the mid-60s that limit excessive evaporative cooling. Model consensus from NWS and private sources shows minimal spread, with limited cloud cover or precipitation expected before peak afternoon temperatures. The secondary 86-87°F bin at 24.5% accounts for slight upside if insolation exceeds guidance, while lower probabilities for 82-83°F or above 88°F reflect the narrow uncertainty band in current short-range guidance. No significant forecast revisions have emerged in the past 24 hours to shift this positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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