**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 64%
Z.ai 31%
ओपनएआई 30%
टेनसेंट 26%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
Anthropic
64%
Z.ai
31%
ओपनएआई
30%
टेनसेंट
26%
गूगल
15%
MiniMax
24%
SpaceXAI
18%
Baidu
18%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
18%
DeepSeek
16%
मेटा
15%
मूनशॉट
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Amazon
13%
मिस्ट्रल
13%
Meituan
13%
अलीबाबा
12%
Nvidia
12%
StepFun
9%
Thinky
9%
बाइटडांस
10%
Anthropic 64%
Z.ai 31%
ओपनएआई 30%
टेनसेंट 26%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
Anthropic
$70 वॉल्यूम
64%
Z.ai
$50 वॉल्यूम
31%
ओपनएआई
$50 वॉल्यूम
30%
टेनसेंट
$50 वॉल्यूम
26%
गूगल
$70 वॉल्यूम
15%
MiniMax
$50 वॉल्यूम
24%
SpaceXAI
$50 वॉल्यूम
18%
Baidu
$50 वॉल्यूम
18%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$50 वॉल्यूम
18%
DeepSeek
$50 वॉल्यूम
16%
मेटा
$50 वॉल्यूम
15%
मूनशॉट
$50 वॉल्यूम
14%
Xiaomi
$50 वॉल्यूम
14%
Amazon
$50 वॉल्यूम
13%
मिस्ट्रल
$50 वॉल्यूम
13%
Meituan
$50 वॉल्यूम
13%
अलीबाबा
$50 वॉल्यूम
12%
Nvidia
$50 वॉल्यूम
12%
StepFun
$50 वॉल्यूम
9%
Thinky
$50 वॉल्यूम
9%
बाइटडांस
$62 वॉल्यूम
10%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,095समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$1,095समाप्ति तिथि
1 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, which topped multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign v5 at 84.77 in mid-September 2026, underpins its 61.5% market-implied odds.** The model leads or ties on key metrics for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (second on several boards) and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series. Traders price in Anthropic’s consistent frontier pace and strong benchmark evidence while discounting lower-probability Chinese providers and others due to gaps in verified capability. With only weeks until end-November resolution, further model drops—such as rumored Google Gemini 4 or OpenAI updates—remain the key swing factors that could narrow or widen the current gap.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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