Anthropic’s consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index drives the 68.5% implied probability for its models topping the field by year-end. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have posted leading scores around 60-63 across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and xAI’s Grok 4.5 series despite competitive updates from both labs. Traders view Anthropic’s focus on high-context, reliable performance and enterprise tooling as durable advantages with limited time left for rivals to close the gap meaningfully. Chinese labs like Moonshot and DeepSeek offer strong value but trail on frontier metrics, while Google’s Gemini updates have not shifted the ranking. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that sustained benchmark momentum favors Anthropic through December.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएंथ्रोपिक 69%
xAI 11.6%
OpenAI 9%
गूगल 7%
$695,794 वॉल्यूम
$695,794 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
एंथ्रोपिक
69%
xAI
12%
OpenAI
9%
गूगल
7%
मेटा
3%
मूनशॉट
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
अलीबाबा
1%
बाइटडांस
<1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
<1%
अमेज़न
<1%
बायडू
<1%
Meituan
<1%
एंथ्रोपिक 69%
xAI 11.6%
OpenAI 9%
गूगल 7%
$695,794 वॉल्यूम
$695,794 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
एंथ्रोपिक
$77,654 वॉल्यूम
69%
xAI
$54,695 वॉल्यूम
12%
OpenAI
$57,424 वॉल्यूम
9%
गूगल
$37,627 वॉल्यूम
7%
मेटा
$47,397 वॉल्यूम
3%
मूनशॉट
$51,448 वॉल्यूम
1%
DeepSeek
$49,507 वॉल्यूम
1%
Z.ai
$44,622 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलीबाबा
$43,709 वॉल्यूम
1%
बाइटडांस
$54,662 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्त्राल
$34,995 वॉल्यूम
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$39,736 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़न
$35,085 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बायडू
$30,769 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$36,466 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index drives the 68.5% implied probability for its models topping the field by year-end. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have posted leading scores around 60-63 across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and xAI’s Grok 4.5 series despite competitive updates from both labs. Traders view Anthropic’s focus on high-context, reliable performance and enterprise tooling as durable advantages with limited time left for rivals to close the gap meaningfully. Chinese labs like Moonshot and DeepSeek offer strong value but trail on frontier metrics, while Google’s Gemini updates have not shifted the ranking. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that sustained benchmark momentum favors Anthropic through December.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$695,794समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index drives the 68.5% implied probability for its models topping the field by year-end. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have posted leading scores around 60-63 across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and xAI’s Grok 4.5 series despite competitive updates from both labs. Traders view Anthropic’s focus on high-context, reliable performance and enterprise tooling as durable advantages with limited time left for rivals to close the gap meaningfully. Chinese labs like Moonshot and DeepSeek offer strong value but trail on frontier metrics, while Google’s Gemini updates have not shifted the ranking. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that sustained benchmark momentum favors Anthropic through December.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$695,794समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s consistent leadership on independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index drives the 68.5% implied probability for its models topping the field by year-end. Recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have posted leading scores around 60-63 across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and xAI’s Grok 4.5 series despite competitive updates from both labs. Traders view Anthropic’s focus on high-context, reliable performance and enterprise tooling as durable advantages with limited time left for rivals to close the gap meaningfully. Chinese labs like Moonshot and DeepSeek offer strong value but trail on frontier metrics, while Google’s Gemini updates have not shifted the ranking. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus that sustained benchmark momentum favors Anthropic through December.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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