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Politique·Taïwan

Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan

icon for Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan
Politique·Taïwan

Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan

Lin Kuo-chang 55%

Wu Tsung-hsien 41%

Chen Wan-hui 5%

Chang Sheng-te 2.5%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Lin Kuo-chang 55%

Wu Tsung-hsien 41%

Chen Wan-hui 5%

Chang Sheng-te 2.5%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Lin Kuo-chang

Lin Kuo-chang

$1,113 Vol.

55%

icon for Wu Tsung-hsien

Wu Tsung-hsien

$1,114 Vol.

41%

icon for Chen Wan-hui

Chen Wan-hui

$293 Vol.

5%

icon for Chang Sheng-te

Chang Sheng-te

$253 Vol.

3%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).In the lead-up to Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections, the Yilan County magistrate race centers on Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lin Kuo-chang and Kuomintang legislator Wu Tsung-hsien, with Taiwan People’s Party nominee Chen Wan-hui also on the ballot. Early 2026 nomination polls and a May joint KMT-TPP survey showed Lin narrowly ahead in head-to-head matchups, producing the current trader consensus that prices the DPP contender slightly ahead while leaving room for opposition consolidation. Key variables include potential KMT-TPP coordination to limit vote splitting, shifts in county-level turnout among traditional bases, and any late-cycle national party messaging on local governance priorities. The narrow spread in recent surveys keeps implied probabilities sensitive to developments that could alter the balance before election day.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,773
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).In the lead-up to Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections, the Yilan County magistrate race centers on Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lin Kuo-chang and Kuomintang legislator Wu Tsung-hsien, with Taiwan People’s Party nominee Chen Wan-hui also on the ballot. Early 2026 nomination polls and a May joint KMT-TPP survey showed Lin narrowly ahead in head-to-head matchups, producing the current trader consensus that prices the DPP contender slightly ahead while leaving room for opposition consolidation. Key variables include potential KMT-TPP coordination to limit vote splitting, shifts in county-level turnout among traditional bases, and any late-cycle national party messaging on local governance priorities. The narrow spread in recent surveys keeps implied probabilities sensitive to developments that could alter the balance before election day.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,773
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Connexes

icon for Chang Chia-chun va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Yunlin ?

Chang Chia-chun va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Yunlin ?

84%
Oui
icon for Chung Tung-chin remportera-t-il la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Miaoli ?

Chung Tung-chin remportera-t-il la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Miaoli ?

89%
Oui
icon for Wu Hsiu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Taitung ?

Wu Hsiu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Taitung ?

71%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Lin Kuo-chang » à 55%, suivi de « Wu Tsung-hsien » à 41%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 55¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan » est « Lin Kuo-chang » à 55%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Wu Tsung-hsien » à 41%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Yilan » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.