Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNone before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 18.0%
Susie Wiles 6.1%
Doug Burgum 6.0%
$42,090 Vol.
$42,090 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
18%
Susie Wiles
6%
Doug Burgum
6%
Chris Wright
9%
Russell T. Vought
5%
Lee Zeldin
6%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Sean Duffy
3%
Scott Bessent
3%
Scott Turner
3%
Howard Lutnick
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
None before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 18.0%
Susie Wiles 6.1%
Doug Burgum 6.0%
$42,090 Vol.
$42,090 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
None before 2027
$8,024 Vol.
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,346 Vol.
18%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 Vol.
6%
Doug Burgum
$779 Vol.
6%
Chris Wright
$730 Vol.
9%
Russell T. Vought
$473 Vol.
5%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Vol.
6%
Pete Hegseth
$939 Vol.
4%
Sean Duffy
$632 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$1,473 Vol.
3%
Scott Turner
$351 Vol.
3%
Howard Lutnick
$826 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$581 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$478 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$498 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$517 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$646 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$847 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$506 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$42,090Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$42,090Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns nearly half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting recent stability after earlier 2026 removals of officials including the homeland security secretary and attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads remaining names at 18 percent amid ongoing tensions over his unorthodox public-health positions and agency implementation challenges. Chris Wright follows at under 10 percent as traders monitor energy-sector deregulation efforts and related political headwinds. Lower-probability outcomes such as Doug Burgum, Susie Wiles, and Lee Zeldin tie to routine performance reviews, confirmation dynamics, or White House staffing adjustments without acute recent catalysts. The distribution underscores how past firings and policy friction shape current implied probabilities rather than any single imminent trigger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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