Elon Musk’s consistently high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of probabilities around 160–219 tweets for the August 18–25 window, with 180–199 edging out at 19.5 percent as the narrow leader. Traders factor in his typical daily cadence of 25–40 posts during active periods, tempered by occasional lighter stretches tied to travel, product launches, or regulatory focus. The evenly matched top bins reflect uncertainty over whether external events—earnings calls, policy statements, or platform developments—will push volume higher or lower in the final days before the count locks. Historical weekly totals and recent activity patterns provide the main reference points, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift with breaking news or Musk’s own schedule.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour180-199 20%
160-179 19%
200-219 18%
140-159 17%
$32,812 Vol.
$32,812 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
17%
160-179
19%
180-199
20%
200-219
18%
220-239
17%
240-259
5%
260-279
5%
280-299
2%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 20%
160-179 19%
200-219 18%
140-159 17%
$32,812 Vol.
$32,812 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
17%
160-179
19%
180-199
20%
200-219
18%
220-239
17%
240-259
5%
260-279
5%
280-299
2%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s consistently high-volume posting on X drives the tight clustering of probabilities around 160–219 tweets for the August 18–25 window, with 180–199 edging out at 19.5 percent as the narrow leader. Traders factor in his typical daily cadence of 25–40 posts during active periods, tempered by occasional lighter stretches tied to travel, product launches, or regulatory focus. The evenly matched top bins reflect uncertainty over whether external events—earnings calls, policy statements, or platform developments—will push volume higher or lower in the final days before the count locks. Historical weekly totals and recent activity patterns provide the main reference points, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift with breaking news or Musk’s own schedule.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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