Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 23, 2026 primary, succeeding retiring incumbent Jerry Nadler. Trader consensus heavily favors a final certified margin of victory under 5 percent, reflecting preliminary tallies and geographic splits that kept the race tight between Lasher and his closest challenger through election night. Lasher drew strength from the Upper West Side and unexpected Upper East Side precincts, while opponents concentrated support in areas such as Midtown and Kips Bay; a crowded field that included Alex Bores, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg further fragmented the vote. Official canvassing, potential minor adjustments from absentee or provisional ballots, and any post-election challenges remain the primary variables that could shift the recorded margin outside the sub-5 percent range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLasher <5% 98.0%
Lasher 5–10 % 1.5%
Lasher +15 % <1%
Lasher 10–15 % <1%
$94,975 Vol.
$94,975 Vol.
23 juin 2026
Lasher +15 %
<1%
Lasher 10–15 %
<1%
Lasher 5–10 %
2%
Lasher <5%
98%
Lasher <5% 98.0%
Lasher 5–10 % 1.5%
Lasher +15 % <1%
Lasher 10–15 % <1%
$94,975 Vol.
$94,975 Vol.
23 juin 2026
Lasher +15 %
$4,681 Vol.
<1%
Lasher 10–15 %
$4,346 Vol.
<1%
Lasher 5–10 %
$5,755 Vol.
2%
Lasher <5%
$14,577 Vol.
98%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 23, 2026 primary, succeeding retiring incumbent Jerry Nadler. Trader consensus heavily favors a final certified margin of victory under 5 percent, reflecting preliminary tallies and geographic splits that kept the race tight between Lasher and his closest challenger through election night. Lasher drew strength from the Upper West Side and unexpected Upper East Side precincts, while opponents concentrated support in areas such as Midtown and Kips Bay; a crowded field that included Alex Bores, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg further fragmented the vote. Official canvassing, potential minor adjustments from absentee or provisional ballots, and any post-election challenges remain the primary variables that could shift the recorded margin outside the sub-5 percent range.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$94,975Date de fin
24 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 23, 2026 primary, succeeding retiring incumbent Jerry Nadler. Trader consensus heavily favors a final certified margin of victory under 5 percent, reflecting preliminary tallies and geographic splits that kept the race tight between Lasher and his closest challenger through election night. Lasher drew strength from the Upper West Side and unexpected Upper East Side precincts, while opponents concentrated support in areas such as Midtown and Kips Bay; a crowded field that included Alex Bores, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg further fragmented the vote. Official canvassing, potential minor adjustments from absentee or provisional ballots, and any post-election challenges remain the primary variables that could shift the recorded margin outside the sub-5 percent range.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$94,975Date de fin
24 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 23, 2026 primary, succeeding retiring incumbent Jerry Nadler. Trader consensus heavily favors a final certified margin of victory under 5 percent, reflecting preliminary tallies and geographic splits that kept the race tight between Lasher and his closest challenger through election night. Lasher drew strength from the Upper West Side and unexpected Upper East Side precincts, while opponents concentrated support in areas such as Midtown and Kips Bay; a crowded field that included Alex Bores, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg further fragmented the vote. Official canvassing, potential minor adjustments from absentee or provisional ballots, and any post-election challenges remain the primary variables that could shift the recorded margin outside the sub-5 percent range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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