Trump's recent endorsement of Catalina Lauf has sharply shifted trader sentiment in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District, an open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. The move consolidated support behind Lauf, a former Trump Commerce Department official emphasizing an America First agenda, elevating her implied probability well ahead of local businessman Jim Schwartzel despite earlier polls showing the pair essentially tied in the high teens with large numbers of undecided voters. Additional backing from Florida Republicans including Representatives Greg Steube and Kat Cammack, combined with Lauf's fundraising edge, has reinforced her position. Schwartzel retains a smaller but measurable share reflecting his regional ties and business profile, while lower-polling candidates such as Jim Oberweis and others remain marginal in the crowded field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatalina Lauf 77%
Jim Schwartzel 13.3%
Jim Oberweis 2.6%
Madison Cawthorn <1%
$77,720 Vol.
$77,720 Vol.
Catalina Lauf
77%
Jim Schwartzel
13%
Jim Oberweis
3%
Madison Cawthorn
1%
Bob Rommel
<1%
Spencer Roach
<1%
Catalina Lauf 77%
Jim Schwartzel 13.3%
Jim Oberweis 2.6%
Madison Cawthorn <1%
$77,720 Vol.
$77,720 Vol.
Catalina Lauf
77%
Jim Schwartzel
13%
Jim Oberweis
3%
Madison Cawthorn
1%
Bob Rommel
<1%
Spencer Roach
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trump's recent endorsement of Catalina Lauf has sharply shifted trader sentiment in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District, an open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. The move consolidated support behind Lauf, a former Trump Commerce Department official emphasizing an America First agenda, elevating her implied probability well ahead of local businessman Jim Schwartzel despite earlier polls showing the pair essentially tied in the high teens with large numbers of undecided voters. Additional backing from Florida Republicans including Representatives Greg Steube and Kat Cammack, combined with Lauf's fundraising edge, has reinforced her position. Schwartzel retains a smaller but measurable share reflecting his regional ties and business profile, while lower-polling candidates such as Jim Oberweis and others remain marginal in the crowded field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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