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Politique·Chambre Des Représentants

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politique·Chambre Des Représentants

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 86%

Melissa Hernandez 12.4%

Carin Elam <1%

Matt Ortega <1%

Polymarket

$27,177 Vol.

Aisha Wahab 86%

Melissa Hernandez 12.4%

Carin Elam <1%

Matt Ortega <1%

Polymarket

$27,177 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$17,176 Vol.

86%

Melissa Hernandez

$3,032 Vol.

12%

Wendy Huang

$1,336 Vol.

<1%

Carin Elam

$1,586 Vol.

<1%

Matt Ortega

$1,163 Vol.

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$1,839 Vol.

<1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$1,046 Vol.

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market due to her commanding performance in the June 16 special primary, where she captured roughly 43% of the vote—more than double the share of runner-up Melissa Hernandez—and advanced alongside her to today’s August 18 runoff. The solidly Democratic Bay Area district, vacant after Eric Swalwell’s April resignation, features only these two major-party candidates on the special general ballot, with all other listed contenders polling at negligible levels. Democratic Party endorsement of Wahab, her prior statewide Senate experience, and consistent polling leads over Hernandez in both the special and full-term primaries have shaped trader consensus. Hernandez’s stronger fundraising has not narrowed the gap enough to shift odds materially ahead of election-day results.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$27,177
Date de fin
18 août 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market due to her commanding performance in the June 16 special primary, where she captured roughly 43% of the vote—more than double the share of runner-up Melissa Hernandez—and advanced alongside her to today’s August 18 runoff. The solidly Democratic Bay Area district, vacant after Eric Swalwell’s April resignation, features only these two major-party candidates on the special general ballot, with all other listed contenders polling at negligible levels. Democratic Party endorsement of Wahab, her prior statewide Senate experience, and consistent polling leads over Hernandez in both the special and full-term primaries have shaped trader consensus. Hernandez’s stronger fundraising has not narrowed the gap enough to shift odds materially ahead of election-day results.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$27,177
Date de fin
18 août 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Connexes

icon for Aisha Wahab va-t-elle remporter le siège de la Chambre pour la CA-14 ?

Aisha Wahab va-t-elle remporter le siège de la Chambre pour la CA-14 ?

84%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour le CA-14 ?

Le Parti démocrate va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour le CA-14 ?

97%
Oui
icon for Marcye Scott va-t-elle gagner l'élection partielle de 2026 pour la circonscription GA-13 ?

Marcye Scott va-t-elle gagner l'élection partielle de 2026 pour la circonscription GA-13 ?

88%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« CA-14 Special Election Winner? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Aisha Wahab » à 86%, suivi de « Melissa Hernandez » à 12%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 86¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « CA-14 Special Election Winner? » a généré $27.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 16, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « CA-14 Special Election Winner? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « CA-14 Special Election Winner? » est « Aisha Wahab » à 86%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 86% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Melissa Hernandez » à 12%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « CA-14 Special Election Winner? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.