California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-14
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-14
$35,739 Vol.
$35,739 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
97%
Parti républicain
1%
$35,739 Vol.
$35,739 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$13,983 Vol.
97%
Parti républicain
$21,756 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,739Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,739Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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