Trader consensus on the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum centers on the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin, reflecting the 43.6% implied probability, amid a long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade in September extent tracked by NSIDC satellite observations. Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, combined with persistently low spring and early August 2026 extents (ninth-lowest on record near 7 million square kilometers), has limited ice thickness and multi-year ice survival. Warm surface air temperatures and reduced albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt, though summer weather variability and forecast model spread introduce uncertainty around potential outcomes near 4.0-4.8 million square kilometers. NSIDC daily monitoring through September will determine the final five-day average minimum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉtendue minimale de la glace de mer arctique cet été ?
Étendue minimale de la glace de mer arctique cet été ?
4,4-4,6 M km² 27.6%
4,6-4,8 millions de km² 19.5%
4,2-4,4m km² 15.9%
<4 M km² 12%
$68,052 Vol.
$68,052 Vol.
1 oct. 2026
<4 M km²
12%
4,0-4,2 M km²
6%
4,2-4,4m km²
16%
4,4-4,6 M km²
43%
4,6-4,8 millions de km²
20%
4,8-5 millions de km²
6%
5M+ km²
3%
4,4-4,6 M km² 27.6%
4,6-4,8 millions de km² 19.5%
4,2-4,4m km² 15.9%
<4 M km² 12%
$68,052 Vol.
$68,052 Vol.
1 oct. 2026
<4 M km²
$30,481 Vol.
12%
4,0-4,2 M km²
$6,592 Vol.
6%
4,2-4,4m km²
$3,097 Vol.
16%
4,4-4,6 M km²
$3,128 Vol.
43%
4,6-4,8 millions de km²
$6,805 Vol.
20%
4,8-5 millions de km²
$3,475 Vol.
6%
5M+ km²
$14,474 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum centers on the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin, reflecting the 43.6% implied probability, amid a long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade in September extent tracked by NSIDC satellite observations. Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, combined with persistently low spring and early August 2026 extents (ninth-lowest on record near 7 million square kilometers), has limited ice thickness and multi-year ice survival. Warm surface air temperatures and reduced albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt, though summer weather variability and forecast model spread introduce uncertainty around potential outcomes near 4.0-4.8 million square kilometers. NSIDC daily monitoring through September will determine the final five-day average minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,052Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum centers on the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin, reflecting the 43.6% implied probability, amid a long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade in September extent tracked by NSIDC satellite observations. Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, combined with persistently low spring and early August 2026 extents (ninth-lowest on record near 7 million square kilometers), has limited ice thickness and multi-year ice survival. Warm surface air temperatures and reduced albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt, though summer weather variability and forecast model spread introduce uncertainty around potential outcomes near 4.0-4.8 million square kilometers. NSIDC daily monitoring through September will determine the final five-day average minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,052Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum centers on the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin, reflecting the 43.6% implied probability, amid a long-term decline of roughly 12% per decade in September extent tracked by NSIDC satellite observations. Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers, combined with persistently low spring and early August 2026 extents (ninth-lowest on record near 7 million square kilometers), has limited ice thickness and multi-year ice survival. Warm surface air temperatures and reduced albedo feedback continue to accelerate melt, though summer weather variability and forecast model spread introduce uncertainty around potential outcomes near 4.0-4.8 million square kilometers. NSIDC daily monitoring through September will determine the final five-day average minimum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes