Trader consensus shows near-even odds between a record-topping August 1–3 in 2026 and a finish outside the top three because daily global mean temperature anomalies sit within a narrow range of prior peaks, driven by persistent greenhouse-gas forcing offset by natural variability. Current atmospheric patterns, including jet-stream positioning and regional heat domes, create high sensitivity to small shifts in maximum temperatures or cloud cover, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit additional boosts. Official surface and satellite datasets from agencies like NOAA will resolve rankings quickly once the period ends, with historical analogs indicating that daily records often hinge on just 0.1–0.2 °C margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
1st hottest 52%
2nd hottest 48%
4th or lower 42%
3rd hottest 23%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
1st hottest
52%
2nd hottest
48%
3rd hottest
23%
4th or lower
42%
1st hottest 52%
2nd hottest 48%
4th or lower 42%
3rd hottest 23%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
1st hottest
$1 Vol.
52%
2nd hottest
$1 Vol.
48%
3rd hottest
$36 Vol.
23%
4th or lower
$35 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus shows near-even odds between a record-topping August 1–3 in 2026 and a finish outside the top three because daily global mean temperature anomalies sit within a narrow range of prior peaks, driven by persistent greenhouse-gas forcing offset by natural variability. Current atmospheric patterns, including jet-stream positioning and regional heat domes, create high sensitivity to small shifts in maximum temperatures or cloud cover, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit additional boosts. Official surface and satellite datasets from agencies like NOAA will resolve rankings quickly once the period ends, with historical analogs indicating that daily records often hinge on just 0.1–0.2 °C margins.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$73Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus shows near-even odds between a record-topping August 1–3 in 2026 and a finish outside the top three because daily global mean temperature anomalies sit within a narrow range of prior peaks, driven by persistent greenhouse-gas forcing offset by natural variability. Current atmospheric patterns, including jet-stream positioning and regional heat domes, create high sensitivity to small shifts in maximum temperatures or cloud cover, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit additional boosts. Official surface and satellite datasets from agencies like NOAA will resolve rankings quickly once the period ends, with historical analogs indicating that daily records often hinge on just 0.1–0.2 °C margins.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$73Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows near-even odds between a record-topping August 1–3 in 2026 and a finish outside the top three because daily global mean temperature anomalies sit within a narrow range of prior peaks, driven by persistent greenhouse-gas forcing offset by natural variability. Current atmospheric patterns, including jet-stream positioning and regional heat domes, create high sensitivity to small shifts in maximum temperatures or cloud cover, while ENSO-neutral conditions limit additional boosts. Official surface and satellite datasets from agencies like NOAA will resolve rankings quickly once the period ends, with historical analogs indicating that daily records often hinge on just 0.1–0.2 °C margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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