Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
2026 1er, 2, 3ème plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Le plus chaud 78%
3e plus chaud 19%
2e plus chaud 4.7%
4e ou moins <1%
$100,983 Vol.
$100,983 Vol.
31 juil. 2026
Le plus chaud
78%
2e plus chaud
5%
3e plus chaud
19%
4e ou moins
<1%
Le plus chaud 78%
3e plus chaud 19%
2e plus chaud 4.7%
4e ou moins <1%
$100,983 Vol.
$100,983 Vol.
31 juil. 2026
Le plus chaud
$50,252 Vol.
78%
2e plus chaud
$19,104 Vol.
5%
3e plus chaud
$23,720 Vol.
19%
4e ou moins
$7,907 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$100,983Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$100,983Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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