Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
5-6 54%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.3%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<5
33%
5-6
54%
7-8
6%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 54%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.3%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
<5
$99,154 Vol.
33%
5-6
$113,820 Vol.
54%
7-8
$158,488 Vol.
6%
9-10
$61,502 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,397 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,073 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,509 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$493,114Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$493,114Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus around 5-6 Starship launches reaching space in 2026, with 54% implied probability, reflects the vehicle's historically deliberate test cadence and ongoing maturation of the V3 architecture. As of mid-August 2026, only Flight 13 had occurred this year following five 2025 tests, with Flight 14 eyed for late August or September as the first full orbital attempt and potential upper-stage catch. Recent developments, including the successful July 24 V3 flight that deployed Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrated hot-staging, support incremental progress, yet FAA oversight, mishap investigations, and the shift to reusable operations continue to pace launches far below the licensed maximum of 25 annually. Key swing factors for traders include the timeline for reliable orbital flights, booster recovery milestones, and any regulatory delays that could limit 2026 totals to fewer than five.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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