NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry and Scout systems, along with ESA monitoring, continue to show no known asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton atmospheric impact through the end of 2026. All cataloged objects large enough to reach that energy threshold have safe close approaches or miss distances measured in lunar distances or greater. Small bolides and fireballs have increased in early 2026 detections, yet these remain pebble- to meter-scale and fall well below 5 kt thresholds, consistent with historical rates of harmless atmospheric entries. Continuous radar and optical surveys plus rapid orbit refinement further reduce the chance of an undetected object producing the required energy release before year-end. Traders therefore assign roughly 31.5 % probability to a confirmed 5 kt event, reflecting both the absence of specific threats and the low base-rate frequency of such impacts.