No at 74% reflects the low baseline probability of a 5 kt airburst or impact occurring in any single calendar year. Objects roughly 5–10 meters across, which can release around 5 kt upon atmospheric entry, arrive on average every several years according to CNEOS fireball data and size-frequency models, producing an implied annual chance well below 50% once detection gaps and geographic distribution are considered. NASA’s Sentry system and ESA risk lists currently show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses through 2026 or beyond, with all cumulative impact probabilities remaining orders of magnitude below 1%. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce the population of undetected small objects, while the absence of any recent close approaches or model updates elevating short-term risk reinforces trader consensus that 2026 is statistically more likely to pass without such an event.