NOAA’s updated August outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season projects a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes observed and Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 82% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns a 16% probability of a major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—well below the long-term 43% average—citing unfavorable steering patterns and reduced intensification potential. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining window before 2027, underpin trader consensus that a Category 4 (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall remains unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
16% chance
$340,152 Vol.
$340,152 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
16% chance
$340,152 Vol.
$340,152 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season projects a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes observed and Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 82% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns a 16% probability of a major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—well below the long-term 43% average—citing unfavorable steering patterns and reduced intensification potential. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining window before 2027, underpin trader consensus that a Category 4 (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall remains unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,152Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season projects a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes observed and Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 82% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns a 16% probability of a major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—well below the long-term 43% average—citing unfavorable steering patterns and reduced intensification potential. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining window before 2027, underpin trader consensus that a Category 4 (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall remains unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,152Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season projects a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, with zero hurricanes observed and Accumulated Cyclone Energy running 82% below the 1991–2020 average. Colorado State University similarly assigns a 16% probability of a major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline—well below the long-term 43% average—citing unfavorable steering patterns and reduced intensification potential. These conditions, combined with the season’s remaining window before 2027, underpin trader consensus that a Category 4 (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) U.S. landfall remains unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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