Recent rapid intensification of the 2026-27 El Niño, with observed RONI values reaching +1.34°C in July and Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +2.0°C, underpins the leading market-implied probability for a peak over 2.5°C. NOAA and multi-model ensembles project continued strengthening through late 2026, driven by record subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies, with consensus forecasts centering near 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index that adjusts Niño 3.4 anomalies against tropical-mean SSTs. This positions a very strong or historic event as the dominant outcome, though exact peak magnitude carries uncertainty from evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread; the next CPC diagnostic update in September will provide key new guidance on intensification timing and amplitude.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.5 57%
Under 1.5 50%
2.0–2.25 45%
2.25–2.5 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 avr. 2027
Under 1.5
50%
1.5–2.0
29%
2.0–2.25
45%
2.25–2.5
45%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 2.5 57%
Under 1.5 50%
2.0–2.25 45%
2.25–2.5 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 avr. 2027
Under 1.5
$0 Vol.
50%
1.5–2.0
$0 Vol.
29%
2.0–2.25
$0 Vol.
45%
2.25–2.5
$0 Vol.
45%
Over 2.5
$0 Vol.
57%
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.Recent rapid intensification of the 2026-27 El Niño, with observed RONI values reaching +1.34°C in July and Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +2.0°C, underpins the leading market-implied probability for a peak over 2.5°C. NOAA and multi-model ensembles project continued strengthening through late 2026, driven by record subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies, with consensus forecasts centering near 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index that adjusts Niño 3.4 anomalies against tropical-mean SSTs. This positions a very strong or historic event as the dominant outcome, though exact peak magnitude carries uncertainty from evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread; the next CPC diagnostic update in September will provide key new guidance on intensification timing and amplitude.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.Recent rapid intensification of the 2026-27 El Niño, with observed RONI values reaching +1.34°C in July and Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +2.0°C, underpins the leading market-implied probability for a peak over 2.5°C. NOAA and multi-model ensembles project continued strengthening through late 2026, driven by record subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies, with consensus forecasts centering near 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index that adjusts Niño 3.4 anomalies against tropical-mean SSTs. This positions a very strong or historic event as the dominant outcome, though exact peak magnitude carries uncertainty from evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread; the next CPC diagnostic update in September will provide key new guidance on intensification timing and amplitude.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent rapid intensification of the 2026-27 El Niño, with observed RONI values reaching +1.34°C in July and Niño 3.4 anomalies climbing above +2.0°C, underpins the leading market-implied probability for a peak over 2.5°C. NOAA and multi-model ensembles project continued strengthening through late 2026, driven by record subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies, with consensus forecasts centering near 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index that adjusts Niño 3.4 anomalies against tropical-mean SSTs. This positions a very strong or historic event as the dominant outcome, though exact peak magnitude carries uncertainty from evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread; the next CPC diagnostic update in September will provide key new guidance on intensification timing and amplitude.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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