Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027, is the dominant factor elevating trader-implied odds for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, elevated baseline temperatures from recent years (including the third-warmest first-half 2026 on record), and the lagged warming influence of El Niño events combine to support the market's leading outcomes clustered between 1.20–1.29°C and higher. Model consensus from NOAA, WMO, and others highlights substantial uncertainty in the precise monthly value due to natural variability and steering patterns, with the next ENSO diagnostic update expected mid-August likely to refine near-term projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAoût 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
>1,29ºC 47%
1,25–1,29ºC 31%
1,20–1,24ºC 24%
1,15–1,19ºC 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
<1,10ºC
2%
1,10–1,14ºC
4%
1,15–1,19ºC
9%
1,20–1,24ºC
24%
1,25–1,29ºC
31%
>1,29ºC
47%
>1,29ºC 47%
1,25–1,29ºC 31%
1,20–1,24ºC 24%
1,15–1,19ºC 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
<1,10ºC
$344 Vol.
2%
1,10–1,14ºC
$394 Vol.
4%
1,15–1,19ºC
$333 Vol.
9%
1,20–1,24ºC
$82 Vol.
24%
1,25–1,29ºC
$201 Vol.
31%
>1,29ºC
$255 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027, is the dominant factor elevating trader-implied odds for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, elevated baseline temperatures from recent years (including the third-warmest first-half 2026 on record), and the lagged warming influence of El Niño events combine to support the market's leading outcomes clustered between 1.20–1.29°C and higher. Model consensus from NOAA, WMO, and others highlights substantial uncertainty in the precise monthly value due to natural variability and steering patterns, with the next ENSO diagnostic update expected mid-August likely to refine near-term projections.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,609Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027, is the dominant factor elevating trader-implied odds for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, elevated baseline temperatures from recent years (including the third-warmest first-half 2026 on record), and the lagged warming influence of El Niño events combine to support the market's leading outcomes clustered between 1.20–1.29°C and higher. Model consensus from NOAA, WMO, and others highlights substantial uncertainty in the precise monthly value due to natural variability and steering patterns, with the next ENSO diagnostic update expected mid-August likely to refine near-term projections.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,609Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027, is the dominant factor elevating trader-implied odds for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, elevated baseline temperatures from recent years (including the third-warmest first-half 2026 on record), and the lagged warming influence of El Niño events combine to support the market's leading outcomes clustered between 1.20–1.29°C and higher. Model consensus from NOAA, WMO, and others highlights substantial uncertainty in the precise monthly value due to natural variability and steering patterns, with the next ENSO diagnostic update expected mid-August likely to refine near-term projections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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