Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and models projecting further intensification, typically suppress monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea, favoring below-normal August totals in Hong Kong relative to the 1991-2020 climatological mean of roughly 390-450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August-October outlook emphasizes near-normal rainfall probabilities alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, while noting high interannual variability from episodic typhoon passages or monsoon surges. Trader emphasis on the 700 mm+ bin at 49% likely reflects recognition of tail-risk heavy-rain events early in the month and the precedent of extreme August totals (e.g., 2025), even as the broader scientific consensus points to drier steering patterns. Updated dynamical model runs and the next HKO briefing will refine these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 49%
425-450mm 32%
<425mm 27%
475-500mm 27%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
<425mm
27%
425-450mm
32%
450-475mm
18%
475-500mm
27%
500-525mm
31%
525-550mm
19%
550-600mm
18%
600-650mm
19%
650-700mm
24%
700mm+
49%
700mm+ 49%
425-450mm 32%
<425mm 27%
475-500mm 27%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
<425mm
$87 Vol.
27%
425-450mm
$66 Vol.
32%
450-475mm
$83 Vol.
18%
475-500mm
$66 Vol.
27%
500-525mm
$69 Vol.
31%
525-550mm
$98 Vol.
19%
550-600mm
$80 Vol.
18%
600-650mm
$66 Vol.
19%
650-700mm
$40 Vol.
24%
700mm+
$153 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and models projecting further intensification, typically suppress monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea, favoring below-normal August totals in Hong Kong relative to the 1991-2020 climatological mean of roughly 390-450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August-October outlook emphasizes near-normal rainfall probabilities alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, while noting high interannual variability from episodic typhoon passages or monsoon surges. Trader emphasis on the 700 mm+ bin at 49% likely reflects recognition of tail-risk heavy-rain events early in the month and the precedent of extreme August totals (e.g., 2025), even as the broader scientific consensus points to drier steering patterns. Updated dynamical model runs and the next HKO briefing will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$809Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and models projecting further intensification, typically suppress monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea, favoring below-normal August totals in Hong Kong relative to the 1991-2020 climatological mean of roughly 390-450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August-October outlook emphasizes near-normal rainfall probabilities alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, while noting high interannual variability from episodic typhoon passages or monsoon surges. Trader emphasis on the 700 mm+ bin at 49% likely reflects recognition of tail-risk heavy-rain events early in the month and the precedent of extreme August totals (e.g., 2025), even as the broader scientific consensus points to drier steering patterns. Updated dynamical model runs and the next HKO briefing will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$809Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and models projecting further intensification, typically suppress monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclone activity over the northern South China Sea, favoring below-normal August totals in Hong Kong relative to the 1991-2020 climatological mean of roughly 390-450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August-October outlook emphasizes near-normal rainfall probabilities alongside normal-to-above-normal temperatures, while noting high interannual variability from episodic typhoon passages or monsoon surges. Trader emphasis on the 700 mm+ bin at 49% likely reflects recognition of tail-risk heavy-rain events early in the month and the precedent of extreme August totals (e.g., 2025), even as the broader scientific consensus points to drier steering patterns. Updated dynamical model runs and the next HKO briefing will refine these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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