**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.** Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall. The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shanghai le 1er août ?
La température la plus basse à Shanghai le 1er août ?
27°C 91.1%
25°C 5.1%
26°C 4.0%
24°C <1%
NOUVEAU
$25,648 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$25,648 Vol.
1 août 2026
22°C ou moins
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
5%
26°C
4%
27°C
90%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C ou plus
<1%
27°C 91.1%
25°C 5.1%
26°C 4.0%
24°C <1%
NOUVEAU
$25,648 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$25,648 Vol.
1 août 2026
22°C ou moins
$355 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$379 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,594 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,178 Vol.
5%
26°C
$3,110 Vol.
4%
27°C
$5,621 Vol.
90%
28°C
$4,266 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,621 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$500 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$570 Vol.
<1%
32°C ou plus
$453 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.**
Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall.
The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$25,648Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.**
Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall.
The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,648Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from major meteorological agencies point to a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability on that outcome.** Early August climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 25–28°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with official model consensus (including guidance from the China Meteorological Administration) projecting calm steering patterns and no significant cooling influences such as a passing front or enhanced cloud cover. Recent observational data from nearby stations confirm stable nocturnal temperatures in this narrow band, with minimal day-to-day variability absent typhoon activity or anomalous rainfall. The strong trader consensus reflects this evidence-based central tendency. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid drop below 26°C—possible only via unforecasted heavy overnight precipitation or a sharper-than-expected marine air intrusion—which current model runs and ensemble spreads assign low likelihood before resolution criteria are met.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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