**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 3 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 3 août ?
27°C 38%
28°C 27%
26°C 20%
29°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
20%
27°C
38%
28°C
27%
29°C
13%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
27°C 38%
28°C 27%
26°C 20%
29°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
22°C or below
$210 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$215 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$660 Vol.
2%
25°C
$52 Vol.
6%
26°C
$84 Vol.
20%
27°C
$644 Vol.
38%
28°C
$42 Vol.
27%
29°C
$42 Vol.
13%
30°C
$57 Vol.
4%
31°C
$110 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$120 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,237Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,237Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes