Tokyo's early August climate features typical daily highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with elevated humidity and urban heat island effects often pushing peaks 1–2°C higher. Current JMA seasonal outlooks and ensemble model guidance point to continued warm advection without significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through August 2, supporting the market's concentration around 33–35°C. Recent multi-year warming trends, including consecutive record summers that prompted JMA's new "kokushobi" designation for 40°C+ days, have shifted the distribution upward from historical baselines. Traders appear to weigh these climatological factors against short-term model variability in maximum temperature forecasts, with resolution hinging on official Tokyo observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 2 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 2 août ?
34°C 40%
35°C 25%
33°C 24%
36°C 8%
NOUVEAU
$13,270 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$13,270 Vol.
2 août 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
24%
34°C
40%
35°C
25%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 40%
35°C 25%
33°C 24%
36°C 8%
NOUVEAU
$13,270 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$13,270 Vol.
2 août 2026
30°C or below
$2,249 Vol.
1%
31°C
$2,212 Vol.
2%
32°C
$402 Vol.
4%
33°C
$1,781 Vol.
24%
34°C
$1,005 Vol.
40%
35°C
$914 Vol.
25%
36°C
$731 Vol.
8%
37°C
$1,100 Vol.
2%
38°C
$1,490 Vol.
1%
39°C
$522 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$862 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's early August climate features typical daily highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with elevated humidity and urban heat island effects often pushing peaks 1–2°C higher. Current JMA seasonal outlooks and ensemble model guidance point to continued warm advection without significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through August 2, supporting the market's concentration around 33–35°C. Recent multi-year warming trends, including consecutive record summers that prompted JMA's new "kokushobi" designation for 40°C+ days, have shifted the distribution upward from historical baselines. Traders appear to weigh these climatological factors against short-term model variability in maximum temperature forecasts, with resolution hinging on official Tokyo observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$13,270Date de fin
2 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo's early August climate features typical daily highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with elevated humidity and urban heat island effects often pushing peaks 1–2°C higher. Current JMA seasonal outlooks and ensemble model guidance point to continued warm advection without significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through August 2, supporting the market's concentration around 33–35°C. Recent multi-year warming trends, including consecutive record summers that prompted JMA's new "kokushobi" designation for 40°C+ days, have shifted the distribution upward from historical baselines. Traders appear to weigh these climatological factors against short-term model variability in maximum temperature forecasts, with resolution hinging on official Tokyo observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,270Date de fin
2 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tokyo's early August climate features typical daily highs of 31–33°C under persistent subtropical high pressure, with elevated humidity and urban heat island effects often pushing peaks 1–2°C higher. Current JMA seasonal outlooks and ensemble model guidance point to continued warm advection without significant frontal passages or typhoon influences through August 2, supporting the market's concentration around 33–35°C. Recent multi-year warming trends, including consecutive record summers that prompted JMA's new "kokushobi" designation for 40°C+ days, have shifted the distribution upward from historical baselines. Traders appear to weigh these climatological factors against short-term model variability in maximum temperature forecasts, with resolution hinging on official Tokyo observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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