**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a hawkish shift in FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike by year-end.** The target range has remained 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, yet June 2026 projections showed nine of 19 participants expecting a higher path by December, reflecting upgraded inflation forecasts (median PCE at 3.6% for 2026) and resilient growth amid Middle East supply shocks that elevated energy prices. July PCE held at 3.7% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, leaving mixed signals that have kept three officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase at the July meeting. Traders are monitoring the August inflation release and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, where hotter data could prompt immediate tightening given the policy’s only slightly restrictive stance and strong labor-market readings. These factors have sustained elevated odds for a 2026 hike despite most economists still forecasting an on-hold stance through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
72% chance
$8,754,026 Vol.
$8,754,026 Vol.
8 déc. 2026
Oui
72% chance
$8,754,026 Vol.
$8,754,026 Vol.
8 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a hawkish shift in FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike by year-end.**
The target range has remained 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, yet June 2026 projections showed nine of 19 participants expecting a higher path by December, reflecting upgraded inflation forecasts (median PCE at 3.6% for 2026) and resilient growth amid Middle East supply shocks that elevated energy prices. July PCE held at 3.7% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, leaving mixed signals that have kept three officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase at the July meeting. Traders are monitoring the August inflation release and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, where hotter data could prompt immediate tightening given the policy’s only slightly restrictive stance and strong labor-market readings. These factors have sustained elevated odds for a 2026 hike despite most economists still forecasting an on-hold stance through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,754,026Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a hawkish shift in FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike by year-end.**
The target range has remained 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, yet June 2026 projections showed nine of 19 participants expecting a higher path by December, reflecting upgraded inflation forecasts (median PCE at 3.6% for 2026) and resilient growth amid Middle East supply shocks that elevated energy prices. July PCE held at 3.7% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, leaving mixed signals that have kept three officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase at the July meeting. Traders are monitoring the August inflation release and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, where hotter data could prompt immediate tightening given the policy’s only slightly restrictive stance and strong labor-market readings. These factors have sustained elevated odds for a 2026 hike despite most economists still forecasting an on-hold stance through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,754,026Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a hawkish shift in FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike by year-end.** The target range has remained 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, yet June 2026 projections showed nine of 19 participants expecting a higher path by December, reflecting upgraded inflation forecasts (median PCE at 3.6% for 2026) and resilient growth amid Middle East supply shocks that elevated energy prices. July PCE held at 3.7% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, leaving mixed signals that have kept three officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase at the July meeting. Traders are monitoring the August inflation release and the September 15–16 FOMC decision, where hotter data could prompt immediate tightening given the policy’s only slightly restrictive stance and strong labor-market readings. These factors have sustained elevated odds for a 2026 hike despite most economists still forecasting an on-hold stance through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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