Recent FOMC communications and incoming data have left traders evenly split on whether the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% range across the June, July, and September meetings. Elevated inflation, running above the 2% target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, prompted a hawkish shift in June projections that raised the median year-end rate outlook to 3.8% and signaled possible tightening later in 2026. Strong economic growth and labor market resilience have reinforced the case for caution, while early September readings show tentative disinflation that could support an extended pause. With the next policy decision due mid-September and markets pricing in roughly even odds between all holds versus some tightening, incoming CPI and labor figures remain the key swing factors shaping the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Other 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$834,477 Vol.
$834,477 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
50%
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Other 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$834,477 Vol.
$834,477 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$320,512 Vol.
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,157 Vol.
1%
Other
$358,931 Vol.
50%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and incoming data have left traders evenly split on whether the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% range across the June, July, and September meetings. Elevated inflation, running above the 2% target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, prompted a hawkish shift in June projections that raised the median year-end rate outlook to 3.8% and signaled possible tightening later in 2026. Strong economic growth and labor market resilience have reinforced the case for caution, while early September readings show tentative disinflation that could support an extended pause. With the next policy decision due mid-September and markets pricing in roughly even odds between all holds versus some tightening, incoming CPI and labor figures remain the key swing factors shaping the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$834,477Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and incoming data have left traders evenly split on whether the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% range across the June, July, and September meetings. Elevated inflation, running above the 2% target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, prompted a hawkish shift in June projections that raised the median year-end rate outlook to 3.8% and signaled possible tightening later in 2026. Strong economic growth and labor market resilience have reinforced the case for caution, while early September readings show tentative disinflation that could support an extended pause. With the next policy decision due mid-September and markets pricing in roughly even odds between all holds versus some tightening, incoming CPI and labor figures remain the key swing factors shaping the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$834,477Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC communications and incoming data have left traders evenly split on whether the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% range across the June, July, and September meetings. Elevated inflation, running above the 2% target amid energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, prompted a hawkish shift in June projections that raised the median year-end rate outlook to 3.8% and signaled possible tightening later in 2026. Strong economic growth and labor market resilience have reinforced the case for caution, while early September readings show tentative disinflation that could support an extended pause. With the next policy decision due mid-September and markets pricing in roughly even odds between all holds versus some tightening, incoming CPI and labor figures remain the key swing factors shaping the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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