Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by claiming the top spot on several independent leaderboards, including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 and leading coding/agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched September 3, ranks a close second on composite scores around 81 and matches frontier performance in reasoning and cybersecurity tasks. These rapid early-September updates highlight the labs’ aggressive iteration cycles, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 providing strong value and niche competition but trailing overall. By year-end, sustained benchmark leadership, cost efficiency, and any further model drops from the major labs will likely determine which companies hold the #1 position, as historical patterns show frequent crown changes among a handful of providers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$142,620 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI
31%
23%
xAI
13%
Alibaba
12%
Z.ai
11%
Meta
11%
Moonshot
9%
ByteDance
8%
Baidu
7%
DeepSeek
6%
Microsoft
5%
Amazon
3%
Mistral
3%
Meituan
3%
$142,620 Vol.
OpenAI
$27,617 Vol.
31%
$18,555 Vol.
23%
xAI
$9,098 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$3,589 Vol.
12%
Z.ai
$5,381 Vol.
11%
Meta
$15,798 Vol.
11%
Moonshot
$9,997 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$2,936 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$1,981 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$23,571 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$5,191 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$5,156 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$10,316 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$3,480 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by claiming the top spot on several independent leaderboards, including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 and leading coding/agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched September 3, ranks a close second on composite scores around 81 and matches frontier performance in reasoning and cybersecurity tasks. These rapid early-September updates highlight the labs’ aggressive iteration cycles, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 providing strong value and niche competition but trailing overall. By year-end, sustained benchmark leadership, cost efficiency, and any further model drops from the major labs will likely determine which companies hold the #1 position, as historical patterns show frequent crown changes among a handful of providers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Volume
$142,620End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by claiming the top spot on several independent leaderboards, including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 and leading coding/agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched September 3, ranks a close second on composite scores around 81 and matches frontier performance in reasoning and cybersecurity tasks. These rapid early-September updates highlight the labs’ aggressive iteration cycles, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 providing strong value and niche competition but trailing overall. By year-end, sustained benchmark leadership, cost efficiency, and any further model drops from the major labs will likely determine which companies hold the #1 position, as historical patterns show frequent crown changes among a handful of providers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$142,620End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by claiming the top spot on several independent leaderboards, including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 and leading coding/agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, launched September 3, ranks a close second on composite scores around 81 and matches frontier performance in reasoning and cybersecurity tasks. These rapid early-September updates highlight the labs’ aggressive iteration cycles, with Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 providing strong value and niche competition but trailing overall. By year-end, sustained benchmark leadership, cost efficiency, and any further model drops from the major labs will likely determine which companies hold the #1 position, as historical patterns show frequent crown changes among a handful of providers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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