Recent deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit, totaling about 1.3 microradians and still ongoing, has shifted official USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models to place the start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 10 and 13. This follows the pattern seen before Episodes 51 and 52, where 2–3 days of deflation after inflation preceded lava fountains from the north and south vents. Persistent glow, gas pistoning, and a newly opened upslope crack signal continued magma movement beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, supporting the mid-August window. Traders appear to weight the core forecast dates most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to a modest extension if deflation persists, consistent with real-time monitoring updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 11-12 55%
Aug 13 or later 30%
Aug 9-10 13%
Aug 8 or earlier 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
5%
Aug 9-10
27%
Aug 11-12
55%
Aug 13 or later
30%
Aug 11-12 55%
Aug 13 or later 30%
Aug 9-10 13%
Aug 8 or earlier 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$231 Vol.
5%
Aug 9-10
$208 Vol.
27%
Aug 11-12
$87 Vol.
55%
Aug 13 or later
$759 Vol.
30%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit, totaling about 1.3 microradians and still ongoing, has shifted official USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models to place the start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 10 and 13. This follows the pattern seen before Episodes 51 and 52, where 2–3 days of deflation after inflation preceded lava fountains from the north and south vents. Persistent glow, gas pistoning, and a newly opened upslope crack signal continued magma movement beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, supporting the mid-August window. Traders appear to weight the core forecast dates most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to a modest extension if deflation persists, consistent with real-time monitoring updates.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,286End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit, totaling about 1.3 microradians and still ongoing, has shifted official USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models to place the start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 10 and 13. This follows the pattern seen before Episodes 51 and 52, where 2–3 days of deflation after inflation preceded lava fountains from the north and south vents. Persistent glow, gas pistoning, and a newly opened upslope crack signal continued magma movement beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, supporting the mid-August window. Traders appear to weight the core forecast dates most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to a modest extension if deflation persists, consistent with real-time monitoring updates.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$1,286End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit, totaling about 1.3 microradians and still ongoing, has shifted official USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models to place the start of Episode 53 fountaining between August 10 and 13. This follows the pattern seen before Episodes 51 and 52, where 2–3 days of deflation after inflation preceded lava fountains from the north and south vents. Persistent glow, gas pistoning, and a newly opened upslope crack signal continued magma movement beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, supporting the mid-August window. Traders appear to weight the core forecast dates most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to a modest extension if deflation persists, consistent with real-time monitoring updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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