Recent data showing the U.S. goods trade deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion in June from May’s $105.9 billion has anchored trader sentiment around the 70-80B outcome for the full goods-and-services deficit. The contraction stemmed primarily from a $8.2 billion drop in goods imports to $306.2 billion, outpacing the $3.8 billion decline in exports, as prior inventory restocking effects faded. With services surpluses typically near $29 billion, the combined deficit has consistently printed in the upper 70s recently, aligning with the market-implied 78.5% probability. The August 4 full BEA release remains the key near-term catalyst, though limited revisions to advance figures support the current consensus range.