**Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party (RZP) has signaled it will run independently in the October 2026 Knesset elections rather than revive the 2022 joint list with Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich explicitly rejected renewed cooperation, stating his party can succeed on its own and does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner. RZP has already conducted its own primaries and finalized a separate candidate slate. Earlier comments from Ben-Gvir also indicated preference for independent runs, with polls showing his Otzma Yehudit clearing the threshold comfortably while RZP hovers near it. Although Netanyahu previously urged mergers to protect the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, recent public positions from both leaders and the absence of active negotiations point against a combined list. Traders price the “No” outcome at 72% based on these direct statements and procedural steps taken by the parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated28% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
28% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party (RZP) has signaled it will run independently in the October 2026 Knesset elections rather than revive the 2022 joint list with Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich explicitly rejected renewed cooperation, stating his party can succeed on its own and does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner. RZP has already conducted its own primaries and finalized a separate candidate slate.
Earlier comments from Ben-Gvir also indicated preference for independent runs, with polls showing his Otzma Yehudit clearing the threshold comfortably while RZP hovers near it. Although Netanyahu previously urged mergers to protect the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, recent public positions from both leaders and the absence of active negotiations point against a combined list. Traders price the “No” outcome at 72% based on these direct statements and procedural steps taken by the parties.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party (RZP) has signaled it will run independently in the October 2026 Knesset elections rather than revive the 2022 joint list with Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich explicitly rejected renewed cooperation, stating his party can succeed on its own and does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner. RZP has already conducted its own primaries and finalized a separate candidate slate.
Earlier comments from Ben-Gvir also indicated preference for independent runs, with polls showing his Otzma Yehudit clearing the threshold comfortably while RZP hovers near it. Although Netanyahu previously urged mergers to protect the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, recent public positions from both leaders and the absence of active negotiations point against a combined list. Traders price the “No” outcome at 72% based on these direct statements and procedural steps taken by the parties.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party (RZP) has signaled it will run independently in the October 2026 Knesset elections rather than revive the 2022 joint list with Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit.** In a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich explicitly rejected renewed cooperation, stating his party can succeed on its own and does not view Ben-Gvir as a partner. RZP has already conducted its own primaries and finalized a separate candidate slate. Earlier comments from Ben-Gvir also indicated preference for independent runs, with polls showing his Otzma Yehudit clearing the threshold comfortably while RZP hovers near it. Although Netanyahu previously urged mergers to protect the right-wing bloc and avoid wasted votes, recent public positions from both leaders and the absence of active negotiations point against a combined list. Traders price the “No” outcome at 72% based on these direct statements and procedural steps taken by the parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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