Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud in a narrow band of roughly 22–24 Knesset seats, reflecting sustained voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu after nearly two decades in power, criticism of his security and coalition management, and the rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has traded leads or run even with Likud in multiple surveys. Internal Likud primaries held August 17 produced a competitive slate headed by Eli Cohen, with elevated turnout but limited immediate polling impact. Netanyahu’s broader right-religious bloc continues to project below the 61-seat majority threshold, while opposition alliances hover near or slightly above it, often hinging on Arab-party thresholds and post-election coalition arithmetic. These dynamics keep seat projections clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with modest shifts in turnout, security perceptions, or late endorsements capable of moving the outcome within the current tight market range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20-24 34%
25-29 29%
<20 18.1%
30-34 18%
$102,511 Vol.
$102,511 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
18%
20-24
34%
25-29
29%
30-34
18%
35+
5%
20-24 34%
25-29 29%
<20 18.1%
30-34 18%
$102,511 Vol.
$102,511 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
$33,149 Vol.
18%
20-24
$15,624 Vol.
34%
25-29
$24,767 Vol.
29%
30-34
$19,721 Vol.
18%
35+
$9,249 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud in a narrow band of roughly 22–24 Knesset seats, reflecting sustained voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu after nearly two decades in power, criticism of his security and coalition management, and the rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has traded leads or run even with Likud in multiple surveys. Internal Likud primaries held August 17 produced a competitive slate headed by Eli Cohen, with elevated turnout but limited immediate polling impact. Netanyahu’s broader right-religious bloc continues to project below the 61-seat majority threshold, while opposition alliances hover near or slightly above it, often hinging on Arab-party thresholds and post-election coalition arithmetic. These dynamics keep seat projections clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with modest shifts in turnout, security perceptions, or late endorsements capable of moving the outcome within the current tight market range.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$102,511End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud in a narrow band of roughly 22–24 Knesset seats, reflecting sustained voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu after nearly two decades in power, criticism of his security and coalition management, and the rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has traded leads or run even with Likud in multiple surveys. Internal Likud primaries held August 17 produced a competitive slate headed by Eli Cohen, with elevated turnout but limited immediate polling impact. Netanyahu’s broader right-religious bloc continues to project below the 61-seat majority threshold, while opposition alliances hover near or slightly above it, often hinging on Arab-party thresholds and post-election coalition arithmetic. These dynamics keep seat projections clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with modest shifts in turnout, security perceptions, or late endorsements capable of moving the outcome within the current tight market range.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$102,511End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud in a narrow band of roughly 22–24 Knesset seats, reflecting sustained voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu after nearly two decades in power, criticism of his security and coalition management, and the rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has traded leads or run even with Likud in multiple surveys. Internal Likud primaries held August 17 produced a competitive slate headed by Eli Cohen, with elevated turnout but limited immediate polling impact. Netanyahu’s broader right-religious bloc continues to project below the 61-seat majority threshold, while opposition alliances hover near or slightly above it, often hinging on Arab-party thresholds and post-election coalition arithmetic. These dynamics keep seat projections clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, with modest shifts in turnout, security perceptions, or late endorsements capable of moving the outcome within the current tight market range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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