**Consistent recent polling projects Likud well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election, driving the strong trader consensus on a seat loss.** As of early September 2026, surveys from outlets including Maariv/Lazar, Kantar, Midgam, and others place Likud between 19 and 27 seats, with most clustering around 20–24. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (often 22–25 seats) and other center-right or opposition lists amid the post-October 2023 security environment and the government’s completion of a full term. Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc typically falls short of 61 seats in these averages, while Likud itself shows no sustained rebound despite occasional outliers. With the October 27 election weeks away and candidate lists finalized, these trends underpin the elevated implied probability for a Likud seat decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated92% chance
$16,678 Vol.
$16,678 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
92% chance
$16,678 Vol.
$16,678 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Consistent recent polling projects Likud well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election, driving the strong trader consensus on a seat loss.**
As of early September 2026, surveys from outlets including Maariv/Lazar, Kantar, Midgam, and others place Likud between 19 and 27 seats, with most clustering around 20–24. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (often 22–25 seats) and other center-right or opposition lists amid the post-October 2023 security environment and the government’s completion of a full term. Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc typically falls short of 61 seats in these averages, while Likud itself shows no sustained rebound despite occasional outliers. With the October 27 election weeks away and candidate lists finalized, these trends underpin the elevated implied probability for a Likud seat decline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$16,678End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Consistent recent polling projects Likud well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election, driving the strong trader consensus on a seat loss.**
As of early September 2026, surveys from outlets including Maariv/Lazar, Kantar, Midgam, and others place Likud between 19 and 27 seats, with most clustering around 20–24. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (often 22–25 seats) and other center-right or opposition lists amid the post-October 2023 security environment and the government’s completion of a full term. Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc typically falls short of 61 seats in these averages, while Likud itself shows no sustained rebound despite occasional outliers. With the October 27 election weeks away and candidate lists finalized, these trends underpin the elevated implied probability for a Likud seat decline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$16,678End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Consistent recent polling projects Likud well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election, driving the strong trader consensus on a seat loss.** As of early September 2026, surveys from outlets including Maariv/Lazar, Kantar, Midgam, and others place Likud between 19 and 27 seats, with most clustering around 20–24. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (often 22–25 seats) and other center-right or opposition lists amid the post-October 2023 security environment and the government’s completion of a full term. Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc typically falls short of 61 seats in these averages, while Likud itself shows no sustained rebound despite occasional outliers. With the October 27 election weeks away and candidate lists finalized, these trends underpin the elevated implied probability for a Likud seat decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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