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Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Jim Schwartzel 43.4%

Catalina Lauf 20%

Jim Oberweis 14.6%

Madison Cawthorn 3.3%

Polymarket

$35,944 Vol.

Jim Schwartzel 43.4%

Catalina Lauf 20%

Jim Oberweis 14.6%

Madison Cawthorn 3.3%

Polymarket

$35,944 Vol.

icon for Jim Schwartzel

Jim Schwartzel

$5,024 Vol.

46%

icon for Catalina Lauf

Catalina Lauf

$20,100 Vol.

20%

icon for Jim Oberweis

Jim Oberweis

$4,937 Vol.

15%

icon for Madison Cawthorn

Madison Cawthorn

$2,373 Vol.

3%

icon for Spencer Roach

Spencer Roach

$1,461 Vol.

3%

icon for Bob Rommel

Bob Rommel

$2,049 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf holds the lead in trader consensus for the August 18, 2026, Republican primary in Florida’s 19th Congressional District, an open seat created by Rep. Byron Donalds’s gubernatorial bid. Her positioning reflects prior congressional campaign experience, early entry, and visibility in a fragmented field that qualified eleven Republicans after the recent filing deadline. Jim Schwartzel follows as the next most favored contender, drawing support from his local broadcasting business ties and substantial self-funding. Lower probabilities for Jim Oberweis, Spencer Roach, Bob Rommel, and Madison Cawthorn align with their comparatively limited recent fundraising momentum or established profiles in the district. An upcoming June 27 debate and ongoing attack ads could still shift dynamics among the crowded contenders before primary voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,944
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf holds the lead in trader consensus for the August 18, 2026, Republican primary in Florida’s 19th Congressional District, an open seat created by Rep. Byron Donalds’s gubernatorial bid. Her positioning reflects prior congressional campaign experience, early entry, and visibility in a fragmented field that qualified eleven Republicans after the recent filing deadline. Jim Schwartzel follows as the next most favored contender, drawing support from his local broadcasting business ties and substantial self-funding. Lower probabilities for Jim Oberweis, Spencer Roach, Bob Rommel, and Madison Cawthorn align with their comparatively limited recent fundraising momentum or established profiles in the district. An upcoming June 27 debate and ongoing attack ads could still shift dynamics among the crowded contenders before primary voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,944
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 46%, followed by "Catalina Lauf" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $35.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jim Schwartzel" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.